Mar 21, 2008

3rd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Quick recap of the concept for this series: The 'Sell' players are basically going in higher rounds or for more auction money than they truly warrant based on what they'll likely produce for 2008. The 'Buy' players are just the opposite, going in lower rounds or for less money than what they'll likely produce for 2008.


3rd Basemen to SELL:
  • Adrian Beltre

    Don't get me wrong, Beltre is a good 3rd baseman, a very good one in fact. The problem is that he has pretty much settled into a steady state of production - you're going to get around .280 - 25 HR - 92 RBI - 85 runs - 10 steals from him in all likelihood. That's roughly what he's averaged over the past 3 seasons with not much variation from year to year. It's not often you see a hitter post his career season at 24 years old, but it appears that may just be the case with Beltre's 2004 season when he hit .334 with 48 home runs and 121 RBI. The number of owners out there expecting a repeat of this performance are quickly dwindling. You can get Beltre's production from Edwin Encarnacion, only using a pick 3 to 4 rounds later or spending $6-9 less of your auction money.

  • Mike Lowell

    Lowell is going pretty high in drafts - high enough assuming he comes even close to replicating his 2007 success, but not high enough to justify his likely 2008 production. At 33 years of age, Lowell hit .324 in 2007, his next best single season average was .293 in 2004. Lowell hit 21 home runs in 2007, a mark he's bested just three other season (24 in 2002, 27 in 2004 and 32 in 2003). Lowell's 120 RBI in 2007 is also a career high - his next two best seasons were 2001 (100 RBI) and 2003 (105 RBI). Don't get too pulled in by the Red Sox hype, the excellent surrounding lineup or even the World Series MVP.

3rd Basemen to BUY:


  • Edwin Encarnacion

    Encarnacion finally started to show consistency in the 2nd half of 2007. Perhaps most important was the fact that his K-Rate dropped to .146 from his 1st half K-Rate of .195. For 2008, a .300-25-100-90-10 line for Encarnacion is definitely within reach.

  • Kevin Kouzmanoff

    Just take a look at Kouzmanoff's 2007 2nd half line of .317 / .524 / .890 with 11 home runs as a decent indicator of what he can do in 2008. Ffor 2008, Kouzmanoff should hit around .300 with 24 homers, 85+ RBI and 75+ Runs.

Other posts in the spring training buy/sell recommendations series:

Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations
1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations
2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations
Shortstops: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Top 25 NL Prospects for 2008 and 2009

Here's the Top 25 list of NL prospects in terms of potential impact in 2008 and 2009 - which includes major weighting on opportunity for meaningful playing time.

Any prospects not likely to be ready for a major role by the 2nd Half of 2009 are excluded - the top prospects that fall into this 'excluded' list include Jarrod Parker-RHP-ARI, Fernando Martinez-OF-NYM, Angel Villalona-3B-SF and Josh Vitters-3B-CHC.



  1. Cameron Maybin, OF, FLA
  2. Joey Votto, 1B, CIN
  3. Jay Bruce, OF, CIN
  4. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, LAD
  5. Chase Headley, 3B/OF, SD
  6. Colby Rasmus, OF, STL
  7. Andy LaRoche, 3B, LAD
  8. Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT
  9. Steven Pearce, 1B/OF, PIT
  10. Franklin Morales, LHP, COL
  11. Johnny Cueto, RHP, CIN
  12. Geovany Soto, C, CHC
  13. Manny Parra, LHP, MIL
  14. J.R. Towles, C, HOU
  15. Matt Antonelli, 2B, SD
  16. Brandon Jones, OF, ATL
  17. Jordan Schafer, OF, ATL
  18. Chris Marrero, 1B/OF, WAS
  19. Ian Stewart, 3B, COL
  20. Matt LaPorta, OF, MIL
  21. Chin-Lung Hu, SS, LAD
  22. Max Scherzer, RHP, ARI
  23. Ross Detwiler, LHP, WAS
  24. Carlos Carrasco, RHP, PHI
  25. Chris Volstad, RHP, FLA

DIDN'T MAKE THE CUT: Homer Bailey, RHP, CIN

OTHER PROSPECT POST:
Top 25 AL Prospects for 2008 and 2009

RECENT POPULAR POSTS:

Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations

1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Shortstops: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 20th Spring Training Highlights

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from Johan Santana, Brad Penny, Kevin Slowey, Tim Hudson, Homer Bailey, Justin Verlander, Manny Parra and Ian Kennedy.





RECENT POPULAR POSTS
Under 27 Breakout Candidates -Pt 2 with analysis of Robinson Cano, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Yuniesky Betancourt, Aaron Hill, Wily Mo Pena, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teahen, Willy Taveras, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, Rocco Baldelli and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Mar 20, 2008

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 19th Spring Training Highlights

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from John Maine, Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Phillip Hughes, Ervin Santana and a convincing Woody Williams impersonation from Matt Morris.






RECENT POPULAR POSTS
Under 27 Breakout Candidates -Pt 2 with analysis of Robinson Cano, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Yuniesky Betancourt, Aaron Hill, Wily Mo Pena, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teahen, Willy Taveras, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, Rocco Baldelli and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Mar 19, 2008

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 18th Spring Training Highlights

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from Jeremy Bonderman, Cole Hamels, Matt Garza and Clayton Kershaw.






RECENT POPULAR POSTS
Under 27 Breakout Candidates -Pt 2 with analysis of Robinson Cano, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Yuniesky Betancourt, Aaron Hill, Wily Mo Pena, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teahen, Willy Taveras, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, Rocco Baldelli and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Mar 18, 2008

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 17th

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from Bartolo Colon, Javier Vazquez, Johnny Cueto, Francisco Liriano, Chad Billingsley, Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett.






RECENT POPULAR POSTS
Under 27 Breakout Candidates -Pt 2 with analysis of Robinson Cano, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Yuniesky Betancourt, Aaron Hill, Wily Mo Pena, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teahen, Willy Taveras, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, Rocco Baldelli and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Dominating the AL-Only 5x5 Roto League

Well, maybe not DOMINATING.....we'll see. Last night I finished my AL-Only, one year 5x5 roto league with some very surprising results. First off, I try to ignore as much 'conventional wisdom' as possible and do my own analysis, forecasting and ranking of players. With that approach it's not surprising that I would draft quite differently from 'the crowd', but I was surprised at just HOW different that would end up!

I picked 9th in a 10 team league. NOT the spot you want, especially for AL-Only!

I am going to list my picks as follows:
PICK # - PLAYER (recent draft Average Draft Position (ADP), highest ADP OR highest-lowest ADP)
GREEN represents a bargain as compared to 'the crowd'
RED represents a major deviation from 'the crowd'

009 - Alex Rios (9 adp, 9 hi - 9 lo)
012 - C.C. Sabathia (27 adp, 22 hi)
029 - J.Ellsbury (63 adp, 60 hi)
032 - H.Street (58 adp, 55 hi)
049 - D.Young (55 adp, 51 hi)
052 - N.Swisher (42 adp, 35 hi - 45 lo)
069 - O.Cabrera (60 adp, 53 hi - 66 lo)
072 - D.Pedroia (81 adp, 75 hi)
089 - A.Jones (150 adp, 106 hi)
092 - J.Bonderman (78 adp, 74 hi - 81 lo)
109 - E.Brown (ND adp)
112 - E.Longoria (122 adp, 95 hi - 145 lo)
129 - M.Garza (118 adp, 110 hi - 125 lo)
132 - J.Gomes (140 adp, 126 hi - 150 lo)
149 - M.Thames (191 adp, 188 hi - 209 lo)
152 - K.Slowey (199 adp, 142 hi - ND lo)
169 - J.Lester (132 adp, 130 hi - 141 lo)
172 - P.Neshek (138 adp, 126 hi - 151 lo)
189 - D.Navarro (197 adp, 175 hi - ND lo)
192 - E.German (249 adp, 216 hi - ND lo)
209 - J.Benoit (162 adp, 153 hi - 176 lo)
212 - R.Perez (228 adp, 186 hi - ND lo)
229 - S.Duncan
232 - R.Raburn
249 - J.Devine
252 - K.Morales
269 - B.Wood
272 - J.Howell

For those keeping score at home:

NINE picks where I 'bucked the crowd':
  • C.Sabathia - at #12, 10 picks earlier than #22 - earliest 'crowd' pick (ECP)
  • J.Ellsbury - at #29, 31 picks earlier than #60 ECP
  • H.Street - at #32, 23 picks earlier than #55 ECP
  • Delmon Young - at #49, 2 picks earlier than #51 ECP
  • D.Pedroia - at #72, 3 picks earlier than #75 ECP
  • Adam Jones - at #89, 17 picks earlier than #106 ECP
  • Emil Brown - at #109, 140 picks earlier than NOT DRAFTED ECP
  • M.Thames - at #149, 39 picks earlier than #188 ECP
  • E.German - at #192, 24 picks earlier than #216 ECP

SEVEN picks where I 'beat the crowd':

  • Swisher - at #52, 7 picks later than #45 - latest 'crowd' pick (LCP)
  • O.Cabrera - at #69, 3 picks later than #66 LCP
  • J.Bonderman - at #92, 11 picks later than #81 LCP
  • M.Garza - at #129, 4 picks later than #125 LCP
  • J.Lester - at #169, 28 picks later than #141 LCP
  • P.Neshek - at #172, 21 picks later than #151 LCP
  • J.Benoit - at #209, 33 picks later than #176 LCP

It's going to be an interesting year - if at least 5 of my 9 'bucked the crowd' picks don't turn out to be good moves, then clearly I will be toast!

RECENT POPULAR POSTS:
Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations
1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations
2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations
Shortstops: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Mar 17, 2008

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 16th

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from Dan Haren, Carlos Zambrano, C.C. Sabathia, Dontrelle Willis, Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets, Pedro Martinez, Chien-ming Wang, Brett Myers, Matt Cain, Felix Hernandez and Jamie Shields.






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Mar 16, 2008

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 15th

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from Jon Lester, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Homer Bailey John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Erik Bedard, Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright, Johan Santana and Randy Johnson.







RECENT POPULAR POSTS:
Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations
1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations
2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations
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Mar 15, 2008

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 14th

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from Daisuke Matsuzaka, Phillip Hughes, John Maine, Rich Harden, Brandon Webb, Ervin Santan, Ryan Dempster, Jon Lieber, Jake Westbrook and Franklin Morales.




Mar 14, 2008

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 13th

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from Mike Pelfrey, Matt Garza, Bartolo Colon, Jeremy Bonderman, Fausto Carmona, Clayton Kershaw and Mike Mussina. Plus a quality at-bat from Billy Crystal!





RECENT POPULAR POSTS:

Mar 13, 2008

Betting The Bank: Who needs roster diversification?

I play in four different NL-only roto leagues. Two are keeper salary leagues and two are one-year draft leagues. I just finished the second of one-year draft leagues last night and looking across those two rosters, plus the keepers I have heading into the auctions in my other leagues, here are the players I own on THREE out of FOUR teams:
  • Andre Ethier
  • Ryan Zimmerman
  • Franklin Morales
  • Brett Myers
  • Lastings Milledge
  • Matt Kemp
  • Chris B. Young - OF
  • Conor Jackson

If most of this set of eight players does well in 2008, I'll be looking pretty good. If most of them tank, I'm toast!

I'm a very strong believer in most of these guys, it's no coincidence I've covered each of them as breakout candidates in the Under 27 Up-and-Coming Hitters series.

The fact that I own Franklin Morales in so many leagues is more indicative of the way the two one-year drafts went. In each of these leagues I got through about 15-16 rounds not feeling too great about my starting pitching, so I figured I needed to draft for more of high-risk / high-reward pitchers.

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 12th

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from Francisco Liriano, Clay Buchholz, A.J. Burnett, Chad Billingsley, Chris Young, Tim Lincecum, and a spectacular implosion from Woody Williams.





RECENT POPULAR POSTS
Under 27 Breakout Candidates -Pt 2 with analysis of Robinson Cano, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Yuniesky Betancourt, Aaron Hill, Wily Mo Pena, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teahen, Willy Taveras, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, Rocco Baldelli and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Mar 12, 2008

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 11th

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from Jonathan Papelbon, Aaron Harang, Jamie Shields, Dontrelle Willis, Chien-ming Wang, Dan Haren, Carlos Zambrano, Carlos Marmol, Jered Weaver, Jake Peavy, Felix Hernandez, Matt Cain, Ben Sheets, Tom Glavine and Jeff Francis.





RECENT POPULAR POSTS
Under 27 Breakout Candidates -Pt 2 with analysis of Robinson Cano, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Yuniesky Betancourt, Aaron Hill, Wily Mo Pena, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teahen, Willy Taveras, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, Rocco Baldelli and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Mar 11, 2008

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 10th

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from Johan Santana, Jon Lester, Randy Johnson, Barry Zito, Rich Hill, Erik Bedard, Homer Bailey, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright, Jair Jurrjens, Roy Oswalt and Roy Halladay.




RECENT POPULAR POSTS
Under 27 Breakout Candidates -Pt 2 with analysis of Robinson Cano, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Yuniesky Betancourt, Aaron Hill, Wily Mo Pena, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teahen, Willy Taveras, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, Rocco Baldelli and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Mar 10, 2008

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 9th

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from Brandon Webb, Tim Hudson, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jake Westbrook, Nate Robertson, John Maine, Phillip Hughes and Joe Blanton.








RECENT POPULAR POSTS
Under 27 Breakout Candidates -Pt 2 with analysis of Robinson Cano, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Yuniesky Betancourt, Aaron Hill, Wily Mo Pena, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teahen, Willy Taveras, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, Rocco Baldelli and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Mar 9, 2008

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 8th

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from Fausto Carmona, Rich Harden, Mike Mussina, Mike Pelfrey and Matt Garza.

Mar 8, 2008

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 7th

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from Francisco Liriano, Clay Buchholz, Cole Hamels, Andy Pettitte, Jon Garland, Ted Lilly, Carlos Marmol, Chris Young, A.J. Burnett, Chad Billingsley and Johnny Cueto.




RECENT POPULAR POSTS
Under 27 Breakout Candidates -Pt 2 with analysis of Robinson Cano, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Yuniesky Betancourt, Aaron Hill, Wily Mo Pena, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teahen, Willy Taveras, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, Rocco Baldelli and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Mar 7, 2008

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 6th

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from C.C. Sabathia, Tom Glavine, Dontrelle Willis, Aaron Harang, Matt Cain, Felix Hernandez, Ben Sheets, Dan Haren, and Jake Peavy.










RECENT POPULAR POSTS
Under 27 Breakout Candidates -Pt 2 with analysis of Robinson Cano, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Yuniesky Betancourt, Aaron Hill, Wily Mo Pena, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teahen, Willy Taveras, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, Rocco Baldelli and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Mar 6, 2008

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 5th

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games. A lot of noteworthy pitchers got work in, including: Johan Santana, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Brett Myers, Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Homer Bailey, Jon Lester, Brad Penny, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Hill, Barry Zito and Erik Bedard.














Sorry about the formatting - I'm still working out the kinks on the best way to publish this so it's actually readable!

Mar 5, 2008

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 4th

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games:

TEAM-PLAYER------------AB-R-H-BI--NOTES
ARI..C.Jackson ........ 4 2 2 6 ..3B,HR(1)
.....C.Snyder ......... 3 1 2 1 ..HR(2)
.....J.Upton .......... 4 1 1 2 ..HR(1)
ATL..B.Lillibridge .... 4 2 3 1 ..2B
BAL..A.Jones .......... 3 2 3 0
.....M.Mora ........... 4 3 3 4 ..HR(1)
.....B.Roberts ........ 3 2 0 1 ..SB(5)
CHC..K.Fukudome ....... 3 1 3 2 ..HR(1)
CHW..P.Konerko ........ 3 2 3 1
CLE..F.Gutierrez ...... 2 1 1 1 ..HR(1)
COL..T.Tulowitzki ..... 2 1 1 2 ..HR(2)
FLA..J.Castillo ....... 3 1 2 1 ..HR(1)
HOU..J.Towles ......... 3 3 3 4 ..2B,HR(1)
KC ..J.Gathright ...... 3 2 1 1 ..SB 2(6)
LAA..H.Kendrick ....... 3 1 1 0 ..SB(3)
.....K.Morales ........ 3 1 2 3 ..HR(1)
.....B.Wood ........... 3 1 1 1 ..HR(2)
LAD..A.Ethier ......... 4 1 2 1 ..HR(1)
.....A.Laroche ........ 4 1 2 1 ..HR(1)
MIL..M.Cameron ........ 3 3 2 1 ..HR(1),SB(2)
NYM..A.Pagan .......... 5 0 3 2
PIT..S.Pearce ......... 1 1 1 1 ..HR(2)
STL..C.Rasmus ......... 3 1 2 2 ..HR(1)
SF ..A.Rowand ......... 3 1 1 2 ..HR(1)
TEX..M.Young .......... 2 2 2 1 ..HR(1)
WAS..C.Guzman ......... 4 1 3 0 ..2B

TEAM-PLAYER------------IP--H-R-ER-BB-K--NOTES
ARI..B.Webb .......... 3 _ 4 2 2 0 1
ATL..B.Carlyle ....... 2 _ 0 0 0 0 3
CHC..R.Dempster ...... 3 _ 2 1 1 2 1
CHW..J.Contreras ..... 3 _ 2 2 1 0 1
DET..T.Jones ......... 1 _ 5 6 6 1 0 UGLY!
LAD..H.Kuroda ........ 2 _ 1 0 0 2 1
MIN..B.Bonser ........ 3 _ 2 0 0 0 3 Game cancelled
NYM..J.Maine ......... 3 _ 4 1 1 0 3
NYY..B.Traber ........ 1 _ 0 0 0 0 3 Sv(1)
OAK..J.Blanton ....... 4 _ 4 2 2 0 2
PHI..K.Kendrick ...... 2.7_9 7 7 1 2 UGLY!
SD ..G.Maddux ........ 2 _ 0 0 0 0 0
SF ..B.Wilson ........ 0.7_4 2 2 1 1

Mar 4, 2008

Shortstops: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Quick recap of the concept for this series: The 'Sell' players are basically going in higher rounds or for more auction money than they truly warrant based on what they'll likely produce for 2008. The 'Buy' players are just the opposite, going in lower rounds or for less money than what they'll likely produce for 2008.


Shortstops to SELL:

  • Derek Jeter

    You can certainly count on Jeter to hit over .300 and score over 100 runs, but he's in a steady decline in the power department. His home run totals over the past four seasons have dropped from 23 to 19 to 14 to 12 and in 2007 he posted a near-career low in stolen base percentage getting caught eight times in 23 attempts - the 15 steals were the second lowest total he's posted in a season with 600+ at-bats. Also, factor in the fact that Jeter has topped 78 RBI just three times in his career and you can pretty safely predict a .320 average, 12-14 homers, 70+ RBI, 100+ runs and 12-14 steals. Good numbers for a shortstop, but not worthy of where he's being drafted or the auction money he's getting.

  • Miguel Tejada

    Similar to Jeter, Tejada is definitely a very good shortstop - he's just not the elite shortstop he was in 2004 and earlier. In 2004, Tejada's first year in Baltimore, he hit .311 with 34 home runs, 150 RBI, 107 runs scored and four steals. In the three years since, he has averaged .311 with 23 home runs, 93 RBI, 87 runs scored and four steals. Don't pay for the 2004 Tejada. Know what you're getting - a shortstop who will give you a .310 average, 25 homers, 95 RBI, 85 runs scored and a handful of steals. And don't overthink the 'Juice Box' factor - Tejada is actually hurt by his change in home ballparks (see previous post: The 15 players hurt most by their new 2008 home ballpark)

Shortstops to BUY:

  • Stephen Drew

    Drew suffered through a sub-par sophomore campaign, his first full season in the bigs. However, he did show significant improvement in his home run rate in the 2nd half of 2007 - hitting eight homers in just 237 at-bats (compared to four homers in 306 1st half at-bats). Look for Drew to make giant leaps forward in 2008 to the tune of a .290+ batting average, 20+ homers, 75 RBI, 75 runs scored and 10+ steals.

  • J.J. Hardy

    Hardy put up a first half batting line of .280 / .495 / .833 in 2007 along with 18 home runs. While he's unlikely to duplicate that amazing first half, especially in the home run department, I don't think he's going to drop off too much from that level. Look for a .280+ average, 27-30 homers, 90 RBI, 90 runs scored, and a couple of steals in 2008. He's basically Miguel Tejada with a lower batting average.

Other posts in the spring training buy/sell recommendations series:

Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations

1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

3rd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Mar 3, 2008

2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Quick recap of the concept for this series: The 'Sell' players are basically going in higher rounds or for more auction money than they truly warrant based on what they'll likely produce for 2008. The 'Buy' players are just the opposite, going in lower rounds or for less money than what they'll likely produce for 2008.


2nd Basemen to SELL:
  • Jeff Kent

    This recommendation is more a combination of common sense, plus hunch as the data certainly does not back it up. Kent actually had a nice resurgence the 2nd half of 2007, mainly due to an absolutely scorching July where Kent's batting line was an amazing .447 / .737 / 1.237. He turns 40 this month and he hasn't topped 500 at-bats the past two seasons. It's hard to see him topping that mark ever again, and while he should still deliver above-average value when he is in the lineup - it's better to let another owner deal with that uncertainty.

  • Dustin Pedroia

    I'm not a big believer in the sophomore jinx, but AL ROY Pedroia is still going too high for a second baseman who will be lucky to crack into the double-digit range in home runs and stolen bases. Leverage the AL ROY and Red Sox Nation hype to sell high on Pedroia - you'll be better off with any of the BUY candidates listed below.

2nd Basemen to BUY:

  • Kelly Johnson

    Johnson was a bit inconsistent in his first full season in the bigs and seemed to wear down in August and September. This is understandable since he missed almost the entire 2006 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Johnson's best month was July when he put up a batting line of .356 / .658 / 1.085. Expect around a .290 average, 20 homers, 90 runs, 70 RBI and 15 steals for 2008.

  • Aaron Hill

    Hill showed very solid improvement over the 2nd half of 2007 putting up a batting line of .320 / .488 / .831 - he's basically Dustin Pedroia within the Red Sox hype and unfortunately without the supporting cast. He's not going to match Pedroia's runs scored or RBI, but he'll be right with him in all the other categories, and for much cheaper.

Other posts in the spring training buy/sell recommendations series:

Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations

1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Shortstops: Buy/Sell Recommendations

3rd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations