Roto Advantage: Under 27 Up-and-Coming Hitters

The 21 hitters listed in Tier 3 (between 400 and 800 career at-bats) can also be grouped into four categories:

Strong Upward Trend
Moderate Upward Trend
Leveled Off
Slight Decline

Again, the primary trends analyzed were as follows:

Comparison of Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / OPS lines
Comparison of Strikeout Rates (Strikeouts divided by At-Bats)
In a couple of relevant instances, ABs per HR were also analyzed

Strong Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

Kevin Kouzmanoff (Age 26 - 540 career ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .228 / .384 / .674 -- .246 K Rate -- 33.1 ABs per HR
2007 Post All-Star -- .317 / .524 / .890 -- .147 K Rate -- 22.9 ABs per HR

Kouzmanoff got off to an absolutely horrid start in 2007, but bounced back nicely showing significant improvements in his K Rate and ABs per HR. Despite playing in a black hole of an offensive home park, I like Kouzmanoff to put up a 2008 hitting line closer to his 2007 2nd half line.
Jeremy Hermida (24 - 777 ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .231 / .422 / .744 and .295 K Rate
2007 Post All-Star -- .340 / .555 / .956 and .211 K Rate

Looks like Hermida rediscovered his sweet swing in the 2nd half of 2007. The spike in batting average to .340, plus the large drop in his K Rate indicates that Hermida is finally poised to fulfill the promise that has eluded him due to injuries the past two seasons.
Jason Kubel (26 - 698 ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .250 / .404 / .706 and 35.0 ABs per HR
2007 Post All-Star -- .303 / .511 / .890 and 19.6 ABs per HR

The large jump in ABs per HR for Kubel in the 2nd half bodes well for his continuing power development. Again, look for a 2008 line on par with his 2nd half 2007 numbers and perhaps even better in the power department.
Nate McLouth (26 - 708 ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .241 / .375 / .695 and 112 ABs per HR
2007 Post All-Star -- .267 / .502 / .868 and 18.1 ABs per HR

McLouth was always projected as more of a speedster, but he showed some surprising power in the 2nd half of 2007 by hitting 12 home runs in 217 at-bats. With full-time duty, McLouth could put up a 2008 line similar to his 2007 2nd half, but the HR frequency will drop off from that level.
Chris B. Young (24 - 639 ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .233 / .427 / .704 and 22.2 ABs per HR
2007 Post All-Star -- .242 / .509 / .823 and 14.8 ABs per HR

Young lived up to all but the very highest of expectations in 2007, including an AB per HR rate in Ryan Braun territory for the 2nd half. While Youngs K Rate remained level throughout the season, his Walk Rate nearly doubled as he walked 28 times in the 2nd half, compared with just 15 walks in the 1st half.

Moderate Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

Howie Kendrick (Age 24 - 605 career ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .297 / .431 / .755 and .200 K Rate
2007 Post All-Star -- .357 / .476 / .854 and .154 K Rate

Kendrick finally started putting it all together in the 2nd half of 2007 - posting that stellar batting average that had me proclaiming that he would someday battle for a batting title back in my 2005 projection. Looks like I was three years too early, but it may yet come to pass.

Troy Tulowitzki (23 - 705 ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .286 / .432 / .790
2007 Post All-Star -- .296 / .531 / .891

Everybody knows the Tulo story - he got off to a good enough start, then just kept improving throughout the season. Tulowitzki should have been the NL Rookie of the Year - I didn't realize they changed the award parameters to ignore defense! Look for 2008 numbers in the neighborhood of his 2007 2nd half line - but add more SBs to the projection as he'll be batting in the #2 spot most of the year and the Rockies are said to be cranking up the running game a notch for 2008.

Alex Gordon (24 - 543 ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .232 / .358 / .679 and 48.8 ABs per HR
2007 Post All-Star -- .264 / .472 / .777 and 27.8 ABs per HR

Gordon showed solid progress in the power department in the 2nd half of 2007, improving his AB per HR rate from 48.8 to 27.8. He also picked up the pace a bit in the batting average department, but he's still well short of what most have projected him to be. Look for improvement in 2008, but not a true breakout season.

Ronny Cedeno (25 - 688 ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .097 / .323 / .444 (31 April ABs)
2007 Post All-Star -- .279 / .442 / .753 ( 43 ABs)

Not that Cedeno is going to win anybody a league title, but it is worth noting the way he bounced back after his horrid April. He may be one of those guys who can plug most any roster spot and not hurt you - although he's not going to help you a whole lot either, that is unless he gets catcher eligibility by some chance.

Leveled Off

James Loney (Age 24 - 446 career ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .385 / .603 / 1.045 and 26.0 ABs per HR
2007 Post All-Star -- .316 / .519 / .882 and 22.2 ABs per HR

Loney could do no wrong the first couple of weeks after his overdue promotion to the Dodgers. He's not going to hit .385 for a season, but .316 is a reasonable expectation and he's shown surprising power that hadn't factored into his past projections.

Ryan Braun (24 - 451 ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .350 / .663 / 1.054 and 14.8 ABs per HR
2007 Post All-Star -- .309 / .618 / .976 and 12.5 ABs per HR

It's hard to believe, but Braun's AB per HR rate actually rivalled that of his teammate, Prince Fielder, who's ABs per HR was 11.5. Braun is the real deal - expect more of the same for years to come.

Stephen Drew (25 - 752 ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .242 / .363 / .667 and 76.5 ABs per HR
2007 Post All-Star -- .232 / .380 / .704 and 29.6 ABs per HR

The only real silver lining in Drew's 2007 numbers is the spike in his ABs per HR from 76.5 in the 1st half to 29.6 in the 2nd half. Even his K Rate stayed basically level throughout the season. While his 2007 numbers don't exactly dictate it, look for a big step up in 2008 from Drew.

Delmon Young (22 - 771 ABs)

Young's 2007 season batting lines were level throughout the season with the exception of his ABs per HR which improved from 75 in the 1st half to 38.3 in the 2nd half. Expect improvement in 2008, but not a true breakout.

Mike Napoli (26 - 487 ABs)

Napoli got off to a bit of a slow start in 2007, but was starting to put things together in 42 July at-bats (.350 / .700 / 1.109) before being sidelined for the rest of the season with a strained hamstring.

Matt Kemp (23 - 446 ABs)

Kemp had an outstanding season line of .342 / .521 / .894 and produced steadily throughout the year. Expect improvement, but not breakout improvement, in 2008.

Dustin Pedroia (24 - 609 ABs)

There were really no discernible emerging patterns in Pedroia's 2007 season - again, expect moderate improvement for 2008.

Scott Thorman (26 - 415 ABs)

Thorman got off to a horrid start in 2007 and never recovered. At this point his value is marginal at best. His best hope is to get dealt somewhere for a fresh start.

Franklin Gutierrez (25 - 408 ABs)

Gutierrez finally earned more regular playing time and all in all had a decent 2007 season. He'll need to improve against right-handed pitching (.232 / .429 / .721 vs. .330 / .553 / .919 against left-handers) to prove worthy of more than platoon duty.

Slight Decline

Hunter Pence (Age 25 - 456 career ABs)

Pence was off to a blazing start to the season and the early favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year honors before being sidelined with a right wrist fracture. The good news is that he performed at a similar level offensively after coming back from the injury so look for him to pick right up where he left off.

Casey Kotchman (25 - 764 ABs)

Ever the prospect, Kotchman had a fair season with only one real concern - his declining power. Kotchman had a 27.4 ABs per HR rate in the 1st half, but dropped off to a 98.0 ABs per HR rate in the 2nd half. For 2008: Improvement? Yes. Breakout? No.

Brian N. Anderson (26 - 416)

Please remove from all draft or prospect lists except for the very deepest of AL only leagues. Anderson has never had a great batting eye and the 2007 was basically a complete loss. Don't look at him again unless he gets a change of scenery.

And there you have it! A complete analysis of the 59 hitters who won't yet turn 27 by June 30th 2008 who have logged at least 400 career at-bats. Whew!