Feb 29, 2008

1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Quick recap of the concept for this series: The 'Sell' players are basically going in higher rounds or for more auction money than they truly warrant based on what they'll likely produce for 2008. The 'Buy' players are just the opposite, going in lower rounds or for less money than what they'll likely produce for 2008.

1st Basemen to SELL:

  • Carlos Delgado

    Delgado put up the worst full season numbers of his entire career in 2007. His .258 average, 24 home runs, and 87 RBI were all career lows. While he did have a bit of a 2nd half bounce back in 2007, batting .285 - the signs of decline are undeniable. It is out of the realm of likelihood to expect a bounceback to his 2006 numbers of .265-38-114. I wouldn't expect too much of a dropoff from his 2007 line though - but that doesn't warrant his current draft position or auction salary going rate.

  • There really aren't any other strong SELL candidates in the 1st Basement player pool. It's a deep position and for the most part the players are being drafted as they should be, with the exception of a couple of BUY candidates.

1st Basemen to BUY:

  • Conor Jackson

    Jackson's 2007 trend line was covered in the previous post Under 27 Up-and-Coming Hitters - Pt. 3 - with Tony Clark out of the picture and the full-time job handed over to him, 2008 is Jackson's year to shine. He will easily outproduce Carlos Delgado in 2008 and beyond - and for a much lower draft position or auction salary than the current 2008 draft trend.


  • Nick Johnson

    Johnson is a bit of a forgotten man in many roto circles after missing the entire 2007 season recovering from a broken right femur suffered in a horrible collision with teammate Austin Kearns the last week of the 2006 season. While he is very injury-prone and a notoriously slow healer, it is worthy to note that virtually none of his injuries are of a chronic nature. They have all been acute traumas: the 2006 broken leg, a 2005 deep bone bruise to his heel that cost him a month of the season, a 2004 broken cheekbone that cost him the final seven weeks of the season and a lumbar strain that cost him the first seven weeks. In 2006, Johnson played in 147 games, the most in a single season in his career, and he hit .290-23-78 with 100 runs scored in a horrible offensive home park. If Johnson is showing that his swing is back in spring training, he could be a major bargain in NL-only league especially.

Other posts in the spring training buy/sell recommendations series:

Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations

2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Shortstops: Buy/Sell Recommendations

3rd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Feb 28, 2008

Win Opening Day Tickets for 5 Years!

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Just go to MLB.com Opening Day Sweepstakes

Feb 26, 2008

Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations

So you just finished your draft and you don't quite feel 100% stoked about your team. You are not in the minority my friend. Just look at the ESPN, Yahoo and other fantasy baseball forums. They are completely overloaded with "How's my team?" and "What should I do to improve my team?" posts. Whether you have already drafted, or you are preparing to lock in your 2008 keeper list - the following series of posts will give you a good place to start in making some of those 'tweaking your team' trades.

The basic premise behind this series is this: position a player on the 'Sell' list as more of a primary piece of a trade offer while seeking an upgrade at another position and try to get a player on the 'Buy' list as a filler/throw-in on the deal. You're not going to lose nearly as much as you might think in swapping those two players, plus you're going to upgrade elsewhere at the same time - that is how you win leagues!

One last piece of information. The 'Sell' players are basically going in higher rounds or for more auction money than they truly warrant based on what they'll likely produce for 2008. The 'Buy' players are just the opposite, going in lower rounds or for less money than what they'll likely produce for 2008.

Now - on to the recommendations...

CATCHERS TO SELL:

  • Ivan Rodriguez

    Pudge enters 2008 at 36 years of age - old by starting catcher standards. He's been incredibly durable over the past few seasons, but the signs of decline are starting to show. Last season Pudge managed to hit a respectable .271 after the break, but with only 3 home runs and 17 RBI - compared to his first half line of .288-8-46.

  • Jason Varitek

    Varitek is only five months younger than Pudge - he'll turn 36 in April. His 2nd half decline was rather dramatic as well. Before the break, Varitek hit .279 with a K-Rate of .242. After the break, he only hit .225 and more alarmingly saw his K-Rate jump up to a Wily Mo Pena-like .330.

  • Jarrod Saltalamacchia

    This sell recommendation comes with a few caveats. First, if you're in a keeper league you want to make certain your team is truly a contender before you consider moving Salty and second, you need to make sure you get maximum value for his 'future production'. That being said, if you're playing for this year - Saltalamacchia is not likely to deliver the value to validate where he's being drafted and the type of auction money he's going for.

CATCHERS TO BUY:

  • Dioner Navarro

    Navarro's strong 2nd half was detailed in the previous post Breakout Hitters - Pt. 3 the main highlight being his power surge, going from only one 1st half home run and hitting a weak .177 to eight homers in the 2nd half with a .285 batting average.

  • Chris Snyder

    Snyder hit a respectable .252 with 13 homers and 47 RBI in 2007. His batting average dropped off in the 2nd half, but his other peripherals stayed pretty much level indicating bad luck was responsible for some portion of the decline. Snyder just turned 27, the magical breakout age for hitters with more than a full big league season under their belt - and Snyder's 932 career at-bats bode well for him developing further in 2008. Don't let the presence of Miguel Montero scare you off. Word out of the D-Backs camp is that Snyder is again going to get more playing time than Montero in 2008.

  • Ryan Doumit

    Doumit will turn 27 the first week of the season and with his 632 career at-bats, he also possesses that magical breakout combination of age and experience. The word out of Pirates camp is that Doumit is looking good and they really want to give him significant playing time behind the plate in 2008. This could finally be the year he puts it all together.

And there you have it - I'd love to hear your thoughts/reactions either by posting a comment below - or feel free to try my new 'GrandCentral' service in the right margin. GrandCentral will call your phone number and connect you to me (or my voicemail) for free!

Other posts in the spring training buy/sell recommendations series:

1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Shortstops: Buy/Sell Recommendations

3rd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations


Feb 25, 2008

20 players mimimally impacted by their new 2008 home ballpark

Wrapping up the series on the impact of park factors for players switching teams in 2008 is the group of players who's new home ballpark is relatively neutral in comparison to last year's home ballpark. Here they are, ranked from slight positive impact to slight negative impact:
  1. Pedro Feliz (.047 factor gap)
  2. Brian Schneider (.042)
  3. Ryan Church (.042)
  4. Geoff Jenkins (.023)
  5. Dontrelle Willis (.017)
  6. David Eckstein (.011)
  7. Scott Rolen (.011)
  8. Tom Glavine (.004)
  9. Orlando Cabrera (-0.001)
  10. Jon Garland (-0.001)
  11. Troy Glaus (-0.011)
  12. Miguel Cabrera (-0.017)
  13. Delmon Young (-0.026)
  14. Matt Garza (-0.026)
  15. Carlos Quentin (-0.027)
  16. Brad Wilkerson (-0.031)
  17. Eric Gagne (-0.032)
  18. Miguel Olivo (-0.035)
  19. Aaron Rowand (-0.047)
  20. Johan Santana (-0.049)

Frankly, I was surprised to see that the gap between Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park and San Francisco's SBC Park wasn't larger - you see that gap reflected for both Aaron Rowand and Pedro Feliz who cross paths en route to their new teams.

The other surprise to me was for Johan Santana. My gut reaction was that pitching in Shea Stadium would be an even bigger boost for him, but not so. Of course the switch to the NL will more than make up for the park factor variance.

Feb 22, 2008

The 15 players hurt most by their new 2008 home ballpark

Part Two of answering the question "How will the switch in home ballparks impact players switching teams?" I've completed a somewhat simplistic analysis using the 2007 park factors and calculated the gap from old to new home park - here are the results, listed in ascending order (#1 is hurt the most) by the size of the gap in factors from the old home park to the new home park:

  1. Tadahito Iguchi (-0.329 factor gap)
  2. Cliff Floyd (-0.279)
  3. Dan Haren (-0.278)
  4. Miguel Tejada (-0.208)
  5. Matt Albers (-0.208)
  6. Jim Edmonds (-0.178)
  7. Jon Lieber (-0.138)
  8. Michael Bourn (-0.133)
  9. Brad Lidge (-0.133)
  10. Edinson Volquez (-0.116)
  11. Josh Hamilton (-0.116)
  12. Francisco Cordero (-0.084)
  13. Carlos Silva (-0.081)
  14. Jason Jennings (-0.078)
  15. Salomon Torres (-0.066)

Only a few names on this list really standout as many of these players didn't put in a full season in the majors last year. Of note are:

  • Dan Haren - the fact that he's switching from the AL to the NL should mitigate the negative impact of his park change.
  • Miguel Tejada
  • Brad Lidge
  • Josh Hamilton

Next post - the players who should experience negligible impact from their home ballpark switch for 2008. A few on that list are surprising as you might have expected them to be on either the helped or hurt lists.

Feb 21, 2008

The 16 Players most helped by their new home park

One of the big questions heading into a new season is "How will the switch in home ballparks impact players switching teams?" I've completed a somewhat simplistic analysis using the 2007 park factors and calculated the gap from old to new home park - here are the results, listed in descending order by the size of the gap in factors from the old home park to the new home park:

  1. Marcus Giles (.405 factor gap)
  2. Randy Wolf (.298)
  3. Mike Cameron (.256)
  4. Nick Swisher (.251)
  5. Livan Hernandez (.244)
  6. Milton Bradley (.224)
  7. Torii Hunter (.218)
  8. Chris Burke (.210)
  9. Jose Valverde (.210)
  10. Luke Scott (.208)
  11. Erik Bedard (.161)
  12. Adam Jones (.161)
  13. Andruw Jones (.141)
  14. Edgar Renteria (.139)
  15. Jose Guillen (.085)
  16. Lastings Milledge (.084 - using a neutral park factor of 1.000 for Nationals Park)

The most intriguing players on this list for me are Nick Swisher, Torii Hunter, and Erik Bedard - they really will have a nice 'tailwind' pushing them in their new home ballparks in 2008!

Feb 19, 2008

Under 27 Up-and-Coming Hitters - Pt. 4

The 21 hitters listed in Tier 3 (between 400 and 800 career at-bats) can also be grouped into four categories:


  • Strong Upward Trend
  • Moderate Upward Trend
  • Leveled Off
  • Slight Decline

Again, the primary trends analyzed were as follows:

  • Comparison of Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / OPS lines
  • Comparison of Strikeout Rates (Strikeouts divided by At-Bats)
  • In a couple of relevant instances, ABs per HR were also analyzed

Strong Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

  1. Kevin Kouzmanoff (Age 26 - 540 career ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .228 / .384 / .674 -- .246 K Rate -- 33.1 ABs per HR
    2007 Post All-Star -- .317 / .524 / .890 -- .147 K Rate -- 22.9 ABs per HR

    Kouzmanoff got off to an absolutely horrid start in 2007, but bounced back nicely showing significant improvements in his K Rate and ABs per HR. Despite playing in a black hole of an offensive home park, I like Kouzmanoff to put up a 2008 hitting line closer to his 2007 2nd half line.

  2. Jeremy Hermida (24 - 777 ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .231 / .422 / .744 and .295 K Rate
    2007 Post All-Star -- .340 / .555 / .956 and .211 K Rate

    Looks like Hermida rediscovered his sweet swing in the 2nd half of 2007. The spike in batting average to .340, plus the large drop in his K Rate indicates that Hermida is finally poised to fulfill the promise that has eluded him due to injuries the past two seasons.

  3. Jason Kubel (26 - 698 ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .250 / .404 / .706 and 35.0 ABs per HR
    2007 Post All-Star -- .303 / .511 / .890 and 19.6 ABs per HR

    The large jump in ABs per HR for Kubel in the 2nd half bodes well for his continuing power development. Again, look for a 2008 line on par with his 2nd half 2007 numbers and perhaps even better in the power department.

  4. Nate McLouth (26 - 708 ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .241 / .375 / .695 and 112 ABs per HR
    2007 Post All-Star -- .267 / .502 / .868 and 18.1 ABs per HR

    McLouth was always projected as more of a speedster, but he showed some surprising power in the 2nd half of 2007 by hitting 12 home runs in 217 at-bats. With full-time duty, McLouth could put up a 2008 line similar to his 2007 2nd half, but the HR frequency will drop off from that level.

  5. Chris B. Young (24 - 639 ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .233 / .427 / .704 and 22.2 ABs per HR
    2007 Post All-Star -- .242 / .509 / .823 and 14.8 ABs per HR

    Young lived up to all but the very highest of expectations in 2007, including an AB per HR rate in Ryan Braun territory for the 2nd half. While Youngs K Rate remained level throughout the season, his Walk Rate nearly doubled as he walked 28 times in the 2nd half, compared with just 15 walks in the 1st half.

Moderate Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

  1. Howie Kendrick (Age 24 - 605 career ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .297 / .431 / .755 and .200 K Rate
    2007 Post All-Star -- .357 / .476 / .854 and .154 K Rate

    Kendrick finally started putting it all together in the 2nd half of 2007 - posting that stellar batting average that had me proclaiming that he would someday battle for a batting title back in my 2005 projection. Looks like I was three years too early, but it may yet come to pass.

  2. Troy Tulowitzki (23 - 705 ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .286 / .432 / .790
    2007 Post All-Star -- .296 / .531 / .891

    Everybody knows the Tulo story - he got off to a good enough start, then just kept improving throughout the season. Tulowitzki should have been the NL Rookie of the Year - I didn't realize they changed the award parameters to ignore defense! Look for 2008 numbers in the neighborhood of his 2007 2nd half line - but add more SBs to the projection as he'll be batting in the #2 spot most of the year and the Rockies are said to be cranking up the running game a notch for 2008.

  3. Alex Gordon (24 - 543 ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .232 / .358 / .679 and 48.8 ABs per HR
    2007 Post All-Star -- .264 / .472 / .777 and 27.8 ABs per HR

    Gordon showed solid progress in the power department in the 2nd half of 2007, improving his AB per HR rate from 48.8 to 27.8. He also picked up the pace a bit in the batting average department, but he's still well short of what most have projected him to be. Look for improvement in 2008, but not a true breakout season.

  4. Ronny Cedeno (25 - 688 ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .097 / .323 / .444 (31 April ABs)
    2007 Post All-Star -- .279 / .442 / .753 ( 43 ABs)

    Not that Cedeno is going to win anybody a league title, but it is worth noting the way he bounced back after his horrid April. He may be one of those guys who can plug most any roster spot and not hurt you - although he's not going to help you a whole lot either, that is unless he gets catcher eligibility by some chance.

Leveled Off

  1. James Loney (Age 24 - 446 career ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .385 / .603 / 1.045 and 26.0 ABs per HR
    2007 Post All-Star -- .316 / .519 / .882 and 22.2 ABs per HR

    Loney could do no wrong the first couple of weeks after his overdue promotion to the Dodgers. He's not going to hit .385 for a season, but .316 is a reasonable expectation and he's shown surprising power that hadn't factored into his past projections.

  2. Ryan Braun (24 - 451 ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .350 / .663 / 1.054 and 14.8 ABs per HR
    2007 Post All-Star -- .309 / .618 / .976 and 12.5 ABs per HR

    It's hard to believe, but Braun's AB per HR rate actually rivalled that of his teammate, Prince Fielder, who's ABs per HR was 11.5. Braun is the real deal - expect more of the same for years to come.

  3. Stephen Drew (25 - 752 ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .242 / .363 / .667 and 76.5 ABs per HR
    2007 Post All-Star -- .232 / .380 / .704 and 29.6 ABs per HR

    The only real silver lining in Drew's 2007 numbers is the spike in his ABs per HR from 76.5 in the 1st half to 29.6 in the 2nd half. Even his K Rate stayed basically level throughout the season. While his 2007 numbers don't exactly dictate it, look for a big step up in 2008 from Drew.

  4. Delmon Young (22 - 771 ABs)

    Young's 2007 season batting lines were level throughout the season with the exception of his ABs per HR which improved from 75 in the 1st half to 38.3 in the 2nd half. Expect improvement in 2008, but not a true breakout.

  5. Mike Napoli (26 - 487 ABs)

    Napoli got off to a bit of a slow start in 2007, but was starting to put things together in 42 July at-bats (.350 / .700 / 1.109) before being sidelined for the rest of the season with a strained hamstring.

  6. Matt Kemp (23 - 446 ABs)

    Kemp had an outstanding season line of .342 / .521 / .894 and produced steadily throughout the year. Expect improvement, but not breakout improvement, in 2008.

  7. Dustin Pedroia (24 - 609 ABs)

    There were really no discernible emerging patterns in Pedroia's 2007 season - again, expect moderate improvement for 2008.

  8. Scott Thorman (26 - 415 ABs)

    Thorman got off to a horrid start in 2007 and never recovered. At this point his value is marginal at best. His best hope is to get dealt somewhere for a fresh start.

  9. Franklin Gutierrez (25 - 408 ABs)

    Gutierrez finally earned more regular playing time and all in all had a decent 2007 season. He'll need to improve against right-handed pitching (.232 / .429 / .721 vs. .330 / .553 / .919 against left-handers) to prove worthy of more than platoon duty.

Slight Decline

  1. Hunter Pence (Age 25 - 456 career ABs)

    Pence was off to a blazing start to the season and the early favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year honors before being sidelined with a right wrist fracture. The good news is that he performed at a similar level offensively after coming back from the injury so look for him to pick right up where he left off.

  2. Casey Kotchman (25 - 764 ABs)

    Ever the prospect, Kotchman had a fair season with only one real concern - his declining power. Kotchman had a 27.4 ABs per HR rate in the 1st half, but dropped off to a 98.0 ABs per HR rate in the 2nd half. For 2008: Improvement? Yes. Breakout? No.

  3. Brian N. Anderson (26 - 416)

    Please remove from all draft or prospect lists except for the very deepest of AL only leagues. Anderson has never had a great batting eye and the 2007 was basically a complete loss. Don't look at him again unless he gets a change of scenery.


And there you have it! A complete analysis of the 59 hitters who won't yet turn 27 by June 30th 2008 who have logged at least 400 career at-bats. Whew!

OTHER POSTS IN THIS SERIES:

Under 27 Breakout Candidates -Pt 2 with analysis of Robinson Cano, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Yuniesky Betancourt, Aaron Hill, Wily Mo Pena, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teahen, Willy Taveras, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, Rocco Baldelli and more

Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more

Feb 18, 2008

Recap - Top 'Under 27' Breakout Candidates

Before posting the next of the 'Under 27' series - here's a quick recap of the Top 11 'Under 27' breakout candidates for 2008, so far (all the players with more than 800 career at-bats):
  1. Dioner Navarro
  2. Matt Murton
  3. Nick Markakis
  4. Rickie Weeks
  5. Conor Jackson
  6. Edwin Encarnacion
  7. Yuniesky Betancourt
  8. Aaron Hill
  9. Wily Mo Pena
  10. Yadier Molina
  11. Ryan Zimmerman
Note: This list is ranked by projected increase over career line to this point - that's why you see Dioner Navarro at the top spot - he hasn't done much at all yet, whereas Ryan Zimmerman is #11 on the list because he's already put up some very solid numbers, but will continue to show significant improvement in 2008.

Feb 15, 2008

Vote on Dodgers' All-Time Outfielders

Vote now at dodgers.com

The candidates are:
  • Dusty Baker
  • Bill Buckner
  • Brett Butler
  • Willie Crawford
  • Tommy Davis
  • Willis Davis
  • Kirk Gibson
  • Shawn Green
  • Frank Howard
  • Lou Johnson
  • Ken Landreaux
  • Mike Marshall
  • Rick Monday
  • Raul Mondesi
  • Wally Moon
  • Gary Sheffield
  • Reggie Smith
  • Duke Snider
  • Jimmy Wynn

You get to vote for three. My picks are:

  • Duke Snider (no-brainer)
  • Brett Butler
  • Willie Davis

Vote now at dodgers.com

Under 27 Up-and-Coming Hitters - Pt. 3

The 17 hitters listed in Tier 2 (between 800 and 1,200 career at-bats) can also be grouped into four categories:

  • Strong Upward Trend
  • Moderate Upward Trend
  • Leveled Off
  • Statistical Oddities

Again, the primary trends analyzed were as follows:

  • Comparison of Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / OPS lines
  • Comparison of Strikeout Rates (Strikeouts divided by At-Bats)
  • In a couple of relevant instances, ABs per HR were also analyzed

Strong Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

  1. Dioner Navarro (Age 24 - 839 career ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .177 / .254 / .492 and 209 ABs per HR
    2007 Post All-Star -- .285 / .475 / .815 and 22.4 ABs per HR

    A truly amazing turnaround for Navarro, especially going from one homerun in the 1st half to eight homers in just 129 2nd half at-bats. Navarro may finally be turning the corner and be ready to fulfill the above-average offense forecasts that were hung on him in his days as a highly touted prospect.

  2. Matt Murton (25 - 830 ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .252 / .336 / .667 and 119 ABs per HR
    2007 Post All-Star -- .310 / .543 / .918 and 16.6 ABs per HR

    A similar turnaround to Navarro's, Murton hit just one homerun in the 1st half, but slugged seven in only 116 2nd half at-bats. With the Cubs signing of outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, Murton will start the season as the fourth outfielder. Felix Pie's development is the most significant factor impacting Murton's playing time.

  3. Nick Markakis (24 - 1128 ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .279 / .431 / .771
    2007 Post All-Star -- .325 / .550 / .939

    A nice 2nd half jump for Markakis across the board. Look for a 2008 season line closer to those numbers.

  4. Rickie Weeks (25 - 1140 ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .221 / .392 / .720 and .261 K Rate
    2007 Post All-Star -- .251 / .422 / .903 and .310 K Rate

    Weeks is smattered across sleeper/breakout lists everywhere, but don't go overboard here. While his main batting stats did bounce back, he also experienced a significant increase in his K Rate. Still, it is hard to ignore the nine homers in 98 September at-bats.

  5. Conor Jackson (26 - 985 ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .266 / .399 / .765
    2007 Post All-Star -- .308 / .555 / .926

    Many thought heading into the 2007 season that Jackson was poised for a major breakout - myself included. Perhaps we were just a year early. Tony Clark's departure puts CoJack in line for more regular duty in 2008.

  6. Edwin Encarnacion (25 - 1119 ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star ---.270 / .391 / .744 and .195 K Rate
    2007 Post All-Star -- .309 / .488 / .848 and .146 K Rate

    Encarnacion posted solid batting line improvement in the 2nd half of 2007, but perhaps most promising is the declining K Rate. For 2008, a .300-25-100-10 line for Encarnacion is definitely within reach.

Moderate Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

  1. Corey Hart (Age 26 - 800 career ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .298 / .508 / .876
    2007 Post All-Star -- .292 / .568 / .906

    By all accounts, Hart did have a breakout season in 2007. He maintained a fairly level performance throughout the 2nd half, punctuated by a nice increase in slugging percentage.

  2. Ian Kinsler (26 - 906 ABs)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .241 / .452 / .786
    2007 Post All-Star -- .288 / .428 / .807

    Kinsler bounced back from a slow 1st half to post a 2nd half batting line on par with his 2006 season line of .286 / .454 / .801 - look for a small improvement in 2008.

  3. Russell Martin (25 - 955 ABs)
    2006 Season -------- .282 / .436 / .791
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .306 / .492 / .866 (stellar first half)
    2007 Post All-Star -- .275 / .438 / .813 (dropped off, but on par with 2006 season)

    It's understandable Martin would suffer a 2nd half dropoff after being one of most heavily used starting catchers in the majors. His September line of .259 / .395 / .725 really shows the impact of a full season behind the plate. Look for a similar pattern in 2008, although hopefully the Dodgers will give Martin a bit more rest in the first half to keep his 2nd half line more level.

Leveled Off

  1. Brian McCann (Age 25 - 1126 career ABs)

    McCann suffered a dropoff across the board in 2007, with a slight recovery in his 2nd half batting line. One interesting stat is McCann's K Rate, which was .122 in 2006, then a .158 / .135 1st half / 2nd half split in 2007.

  2. J.J. Hardy (25 - 1092 ABs)

    Which Hardy will we see in 2008: the 1st half power monster? Or the 2nd half merely 'above average offensive shortstop'? Hardy suffered a near total power outage in July with no homers, but did bounce back with a solid August line of .292 / .509 / .821 which was on par with his first half line of .280 / .495 / .833. I think we'll see a 2008 line closer to this level for Hardy, proving that his fast start in 2007 was indeed not a fluke.

  3. B.J. Upton (23 - 808 ABs)

    Upton dropped off a bit in the 2nd half, but did improve his K rate from .340 to .314 - still quite high, but he's still just 23. Look for more improvement from Upton in 2008.

  4. Kelly Johnson (26 - 811 ABs)

    Johnson suffered a minor dropoff in the 2nd half, which is understandable when you consider he only logged 58 minor league at-bats in 2006 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. With Edgar Renteria now gone and Yunel Escobar moving to shortstop, Johnson is in line for full-time duty at second base and hitting leadoff for 2008.

  5. Melky Cabrera (23 - 1024 ABs)

    2006 Season -------- .280 / .391 / .751
    2007 Season -------- .273 / .391 / .718
    2007 May-Aug ----- .314 / .473 / .842

    Cabrera had an interesting 2007 - he got off to a horrible April and ended with an equally bad September, but in between he showed marked improvement over his 2006 season line.

  6. Andre Ethier (26 - 843 ABs)

    Ethier suffered a slight drop off in 2007 overall, but his 2nd half numbers did bounce back to his 2006 season levels. Ethier should continue to improve and only needs to win at least a share of left field at Chavez Ravine to put up a nice 2008 line in the neighborhood of .300-15-75-5, assuming he can get another two starts each week by spelling Andruw Jones and Matt Kemp on occasion.

Statistical Oddities

  1. Wilson Betemit (Age 26 - 909 career ABs)

    The following stat line tells you everything you need to know:
    .464 / 1.081 / .765 / 1.177 / .659 / .740
    The above line is the breakdown of Betemit's OPS by month in 2007. Clearly the upside is still there, but I can't see any discernible pattern in his numbers that shouts 'Breakout approaching!'.

  2. Josh Barfield (25 - 959 ABs)
    2006 Season -- .280 / .423 / .741 (mind you in a horrible offensive home park - Petco!)
    2007 Season -- .243 / .324 / .594
    2007 June ---- .317 / .365 / .680

    Other than the month of June, Barfield and all his owners would just as soon forget the 2007 season. And despite the nice .317 batting average in June, he only slugged .365 and posted an OPS of .680 - both well off his 2006 numbers. My heart tells me 'buy' on Barfield, but my head doesn't want any part of him!

OTHER POSTS IN THIS SERIES:

Under 27 Breakout Candidates -Pt 2 with analysis of Robinson Cano, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Yuniesky Betancourt, Aaron Hill, Wily Mo Pena, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teahen, Willy Taveras, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, Rocco Baldelli and more

Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Feb 14, 2008

Contending or rebuilding? Make a plan and stick to it!

The fun part of being in a balanced keeper league is managing the cycle of contending and rebuilding. Make no mistake, you can NOT do both during the same season. There are guys I've played with for years - (you may or may not know who you are - but Murph knows who I mean!) - these guys perenially finish somewhere between 5th and 8th place. There's no glory in that! Like a league-mate of mine, Chad, always says - "Flags fly forever!" Even if they are only imaginary flags - you'll always have the esteemed title of "Past League Champion".

If you really want to maximize your success, you need to take an honest look at your team in comparison to the other rosters in your league and assess where you stand. If you don't have one of the top four groups of keepers heading into your draft or auction, it's going to be very difficult for you to contend.

I was in this exact situation going into the 2007 season. I knew I didn't have what it took to compete for the top spot, so in late February I made my first trade in the process for building a contender for 2008:

TRADE #1
I dealt Roy Oswalt ($27) and Salomon Torres ($1) for Andre Ethier ($5) and Conor Jackson ($10)

Oswalt was basically priced at 'fair market value' and Torres was a very nice keeper at $1 heading into 2007 as the closer in Pittsburgh. I came to the conclusion that Torres' trade value would never be higher than it was prior to the auction - which ended up being the right call as Matt Capps took over the closer role and Torres lost virtually all of his value mid-season.

TRADE #2
I dealt Jason Schmidt ($21) for Matt Kemp ($5)

Like Oswalt, Schmidt was basically priced at 'fair market value'. Kemp was projected to either share time in the L.A. outfield, or put in a month or so at Las Vegas - either was fine with me, I wanted his upside for 2008. Obviously this deal worked out quite well for me with Schmidt's injury.

TRADE #3
I dealt Ray Durham ($11) and Brian Fuentes ($10) for Ryan Braun ($5) and Bill Bray ($2)

Durham and Fuentes presented a similar value proposition to Salomon Torres, good pre-auction values that likely wouln't net nearly as much during the season. There's no way anyone could have predicted the massive dropoff of Durham or the emergence of Manny Corpas in pushing Fuentes to a set-up role.

Heading into 2008
I now have a very solid keeper core heading into the 2008 Gas House Gang League, anchored by Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp from the 2007 pre-auction deals I made. By dealing away the salaries of Oswalt, Schmidt, Durham and Fuentes I also freed up funds to draft a few premium players like Jake Peavy and Garrett Atkins to serve as additional 'rebuilding trade' fuel. I'll cover the impact of those moves, and other in-season deals, in a later post.

NOTE: The Under 27 Up-and-Coming Hitter List - Pt. 3 post is coming tomorrow!

Feb 13, 2008

Under 27 Up-and-Coming Hitters - Pt. 2

The 21 hitters listed in Tier 1 (more than 1,200 career at-bats) can be grouped into four categories:

  • Strong Upward Trend
  • Moderate Upward Trend
  • Leveled Off
  • Injuries Obscure Any Trend

The primary trends analyzed were as follows:

  • Comparison of Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / OPS lines
  • Comparison of Strikeout Rates (Strikeouts divided by At-Bats)

Strong Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

  1. Robinson Cano (Age 25)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .274 / .427 / .741 and .159 K Rate
    2007 Post All-Star -- .343 / .557 / .953 and .114 K Rate

  2. David Wright (25)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .292 / .506 / .879 and .220 K Rate
    2007 Post All-Star -- .364 / .596 / 1.061 and .154 K Rate

  3. Adrian Gonzalez (26)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .264 / .469 / .808 and .246 K Rate
    2007 Post All-Star -- .302 / .538 / .894 and .184 K Rate

  4. Carl Crawford (26)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .285 / .445 / .781 and .209 K Rate
    2007 Post All-Star -- .358 / .496 / .878 and .167 K Rate

  5. Yuniesky Betancourt (26)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .271 / .366 / .663
    2007 Post All-Star -- .311 / .481 / .802

  6. Aaron Hill (26)
    2007 Pre All-Star ---.265 / .432 / .757
    2007 Post All-Star -- .320 / .488 / .831

  7. Wily Mo Pena (26)
    2007 BOS (156 ABs) --- .218 / .385 / .676 and .372 K Rate (Whiff King!)
    2007 WAS (133 ABs) --- .293 / .504 / .856 and .271 K Rate

The key takeaways from the analysis of group:

  • It's almost impossible for you to overpay for Cano, Wright, Adrian Gonzalez or Crawford. Don't be afraid to go the extra few dollars for these guys.
  • Feel confident bidding that extra dollar or two for Y.Betancourt or A.Hill - you'll have much more upside than going with a comparably valued veteran.
  • As for Wily Mo Pena, the upside has always been there and if he's going to breakout, this is likely the season he'll do it. He's heading into the season with the best shot at regular playing time he's had in his career, plus he's got his biggest fan in Jim Bowden squarely behind him in the front office.

Moderate Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

  1. Yadier Molina (Age 25)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .268 / .325 / .651 and .134 K Rate
    2007 Post All-Star -- .281 / .403 / .755 and .112 K Rate

    You could do much worse in filling a catcher roster spot. Molina has enough experience at an early age to show continued improvement in 2008.

  2. Hanley Ramirez (24)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .331 / .538 / .926 and .164 K Rate
    2007 Post All-Star -- .332 / .591 / .975 and .129 K Rate

    Is it posible Ramirez can keep getting better? In short, yes! With the increase in his OPS and drop in K Rate, he is capable of doing even better in 2008.

  3. Ryan Zimmerman (23)
    2006 Season -------- .287 / .471 / .822
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .253 / .435 / .737 (sub-par first half)
    2007 Post All-Star -- .282 / .486 / .847 (bounced back, but on par with 2006 season)

    If the Nationals new ballpark is more offense-friendly, that alone will give Zimmerman a boost - couple that with the fact that he's only 23 and he has a good chance of showing a measurable improvement in 2008.

  4. Prince Fielder (24)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .284 / .620 / .996 and .222 K Rate
    2007 Post All-Star -- .293 / .614 / 1.033 and .197 K Rate

    See Hanley Ramirez comment. It's unlikely Fielder will improve on his Home Run totals, but with an improving K Rate it's possible he'll hit over .300 in 2008.

  5. Mark Teahen (26)
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .251 K Rate
    2007 Post All-Star -- .208 K Rate

    Not that Teahen is terribly exciting, but he falls into the 'post-hype sleeper' category heading into 2008. He's poised for improvement.

  6. Willy Taveras (26)
    2005 Season -------- .174 K Rate
    2006 Season -------- .166 K Rate
    2007 Pre All-Star --- .159 K Rate
    2007 Post All-Star -- .119 K Rate

    The interesting thing here is that Taveras is showing a consistently dropping K Rate. More balls in play means more times on base which means more steal opportunities. Taveras could lead the league in steals if he can stay healthy.

  7. Jorge Cantu (26) small sample size warning!
    2007 Tampa Bay (58 ABs) -- .207 / .224 / .501
    2007 Cincinnati (57 ABs) ---- .298 / .491 / .873

    Is it possible for Cantu to bounce back and become relevant again? Yes, it is. A change of scenery may have been just what he needed to break out of his funk. Don't go crazy bidding on Cantu, but don't be afraid to pay the going rate.

Leveled Off

  1. Miguel Cabrera (Age 25)
  2. Jose Reyes (25)
  3. Grady Sizemore (25)
  4. Jhonny Peralta (26)
  5. Jeff Francoeur (24)

    Nothing too noteworthy in the trend analysis for this group. As for Cabrera and Reyes, what more could you want from these two?! The one point of interest from this group is regarding Jeff Francoeur. Francoeur is plastered all over 'Breakout Candidate' lists everywhere - but I'm not buying it. His K Rate was constant in 2007 (.203 before the break, and .201 after), and though his Walk Rate did improve from 2006 to 2007 - it's not enough of an improvement to sway my opinion.

Injuries Obscure Any Trend

  1. Rocco Baldelli (Age 26) - his devastating hamstring injury made the 2007 season all but a total loss. We'll have to see how he's able to rebound and if he can stay healthy. It wasn't that long ago that Jose Reyes was facing similar hamstring issues and he's been able to work through them and stay healthy, let's hope Baldelli can do the same.

  2. Joe Mauer (25)
    2006 Season -- .347 / .507 / .936
    April 2007 ---- .369 / .512 / .977

    One month of action certainly raises the small sample size alert, but for Mauer who suffered through a variety of injuries in 2007 - it shows that he is still the same guy who put up those 2006 numbers. Again, assuming he can remain healthly in 2008.

OTHER POSTS IN THIS SERIES:

Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more

Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Feb 12, 2008

The List of 'Under 27' Up-and-Coming Hitters - Pt. 1

This is the first post in a series that will analyze the top young hitters in baseball. The analysis will focus on hitters who will still be under 27 years old as of June 30th of the upcoming season.

The goal of this analysis is to identify what hitters are poised for a breakout season. Now there are breakout seasons, and there are BREAKOUT seasons. Obviously a number of names on this list have already broken out, but that doesn't mean they've peaked by any means. Still others on this list have yet to take any monster steps developmentally, but could be on the verge of doing just that during the 2008 season.

Here's a quick example to illustrate the point: heading into the 2006 season, Matt Holliday would have appeared on 'Tier 2' of this list with 879 career at-bats at that point. Holliday's breakout season occurred in 2006 and he continued improving in 2007, but the breakout really started the second half of the 2005 season - here's the breakdown:

2005 Pre All-Star --- .291 BA --- 4 HR -- 23 RBI -- .782 OPS
2005 Post All-Star -- .318 BA -- 15 HR -- 64 RBI -- .925 OPS
2006 Season --------- .326 BA - 34 HR - 114 RBI -- .973 OPS
2007 Season --------- .340 BA - 36 HR - 137 RBI - 1.012 OPS

Obtaining Holliday prior to the 2006 season was really the right time to buy - and that's the real purpose of this analysis: to identify who to buy now to maximize return on your investment.

The Tier 1 group consists of 21 hitters who have amassed more than 1,200 at-bats so far in their young career. First the list:
  1. Carl Crawford ------- 3,343 career at-bats
  2. Miguel Cabrera ----- 2,694
  3. Jose Reyes ----------- 2,518
  4. Grady Sizemore ----- 2,061
  5. David Wright -------- 2,024
  6. Jhonny Peralta ------ 1,914
  7. Rocco Baldelli ------- 1,656
  8. Robinson Cano ------ 1,621
  9. Jeff Francoeur ------- 1,550
  10. Joe Mauer ------------ 1,523
  11. Aaron Hill ------------ 1,515
  12. Willy Taveras -------- 1,494
  13. Adrian Gonzalez ---- 1,408
  14. Wily Mo Pena -------- 1,395
  15. Mark Teahen --------- 1,384
  16. Ryan Zimmerman --- 1,325
  17. Yuniesky Betancourt - 1,305
  18. Jorge Cantu ----------- 1,299
  19. Yadier Molina -------- 1,290
  20. Hanley Ramirez ------ 1,274
  21. Prince Fielder -------- 1,201

The discussion will follow in the next post.....


Feb 11, 2008

The 200 Inning Club - Who's In, Who's Out?

The 200 inning club, a one-year membership isn't terribly exclusive - just look at the membership numbers over the past five seasons:

2007: 38
2006: 42
2005: 50
2004: 39
2003: 42

The tougher part is staying in the club year in and year out.

Staying in the 200 inning club for three straight seasons or more is somewhat of a benchmark of durability. For the 2007 season, of the 38 pitchers who threw 200+ innings, just 16 of them were doing it for at least the third straight season - how many can you name? The answer will appear at the end of the post!

I'll give you a little help. There were four pitchers who were in the 3+ straight 200 innings club in 2006 who fell out of the club in 2007:
  • Barry Zito (coming off six straight 200+ inning seasons)
  • Freddy Garcia (6)
  • Derek Lowe (4)
  • Jake Westbrook (3)

Here's a bit more help - three pitchers were not in the club in 2005, but were in 2006 and 2007. All three of these guys are good bets to rejoin the 3+ straight 200 innings club after the 2008 season:

  • Roy Halladay
  • Tim Hudson
  • Josh Beckett

OK, there are seven names you know aren't part of the answer. I'm going to give you a few names that are on the list. These are the guys most likely to end their run of 200+ inning seasons - ranked in the order of likelihood they won't reach 200 innings:

  1. Livan Hernandez (coming off eight straight 200+ inning seasons) - Hernandez is still a Free Agent with pitchers and catchers reporting this week. Two questions: Is he putting in the work to stay in at least his version of 'being in shape'? How long into spring training will Livan go unsigned? The longer he remains unsigned, the more likely it is he won't start the season in a starting rotation.

  2. Mark Buehrle (7) - Buehrle has been incredibly resilient, but with the big four year deal he signed this past July it's unlikely he'll be pitching through any minor injuries as surely the White Sox will want to protect their investment.

  3. Andy Pettitte (3) - Pettitte will turn 36 during the 2008 season and one has to wonder if his preparation and mental toughness will be up to par given the distractions he's dealing with, plus the loss of his workout partner.

  4. Jon Garland (4) - Lingering shoulder issue from 2007 could flare up again causing him to be shutdown for at least a few starts at some point during the season.

  5. Bronson Arroyo (3) - See the Feb 8th post regarding Dusty Baker's potential impact on Arroyo. If Baker rides him hard early in the season, it's not hard to see him also needing at least a brief shutdown during the latter half of the season.

  6. Dontrelle Willis (3) - Willis was pretty awful in 2007. It's hard to imagine that there isn't some health issue rumbling under the surface. Combine that possibility with the fact that his intense delivery style is likely to become even moreso now that he's playing for a real contender and Willis is a decent bet to miss some starts at some point in 2008.

  7. Carlos Zambrano (5) - Zambrano is just too stubborn for his own good when it comes to gutting it out. Pitching through minor ailments can't last forever before it leads to an inevitable breakdown. Combine that with the new contract and the Cubs desire to protect that investment and Zambrano could be facing some downtime in 2008.

  8. Roy Oswalt (4) - Oswalt suffered a minor oblique strain in 2007 which only minimally impacted his workload. Oblique strains have a high recurrence pattern. If he doesn't reach 200 innings in 2008, my money is on the oblique recurring as the cause.

There you have it - that's all the help you're going to get. Of the 16 pitchers in the 3+ straight 200 innings club, I've just given you half the list - the half most likely to fall off the list in 2008.

That leaves the other eight - those most likely to continue building on their string of 200 inning seasons. Here they are - the rest of the answer to the trivia question:

  • Brandon Webb (coming off four straight 200+ inning seasons)
  • Johan Santana (4)
  • Aaron Harang (3)
  • John Lackey (3)
  • Jake Peavy (3)
  • Dan Haren (3)
  • Javier Vazquez (3)
  • John Smoltz (3)

Feb 9, 2008

Erik Bedard and the Safeco park effect

You already know Erik Bedard. You know he's got nasty stuff, a growing strikeout rate, declining WHIP, and a wickedly low opponent's batting average (BAA). In fact, Bedard was fourth in the majors in BAA at .212 - better than Johan Santana, Brandon Webb and Carlos Zambrano, to name a few.

Bedard now leaves Camden Yard and the AL East for the great Northwest and Safeco Field. With this move a few questions immediately come to mind for the savvy roto owner:
  • What impact will pitching at Safeco as a home park have as compared to Camden Yard?
  • Won't leaving the AL East and not having to face the Yankees and Red Sox on a regular basis give Bedard's numbers a boost?

Let's address the latter first - with the standard 'small sample size' disclaimer attached for the AL West opponent analysis.

In 2006 and 2007, Bedard made 27 starts against AL East opponents:

  • Tampa Bay - 10 starts
  • Toronto - 6 starts
  • Boston - 6 starts
  • NY Yankees - 5 starts

Over that same period, Bedard only had 12 starts against AL West teams, excluding Seattle - which is good news since in his two starts in 2007 against the Mariners, Bedard was hit hard with an 8.71 ERA and 1.74 WHIP.

Bedard's result splits looked like this:

  • vs AL East --- 3.31 ERA - 1.23 WHIP
  • vs AL West -- 3.18 ERA - 1.10 WHIP

Based on these splits, plus the variability due to the AL West smaller sample size, it's fair to conclude that Bedard should not see a major impact on his overall numbers due to the switch in divisions.

Now on to the park effect analysis.

Camden Yard was the sixth highest offensive ballpark with a 1.109 park effect. Safeco Field was 19th with a 0.948 park effect. Using the park effect factor for a straight translation, Bedard's overall ERA for 2007 would have dropped from 3.17 to 3.02. Clearly the park effect factor should translate into a slight improvement for Bedard in 2008.

One last note on Bedard. In the event you aren't able to land him in your draft, keep the following information in mind - you may be able to use this to pry him away from an owner around mid-season and still reap some valuable upside:

2006 Pre All-Star ----- 4.28 ERA - 1.36 WHIP - 7.24 K/9
2006 Post All-Star ---- 3.10 ERA - 1.33 WHIP - 8.59 K/9

2007 Pre All-Star ----- 3.40 ERA - 1.12 WHIP - 11.02 K/9
2007 Post All-Star ---- 2.69 ERA - 1.01 WHIP - 10.74 K/9

Feb 8, 2008

Dusty Baker will be the roto death of Bronson Arroyo

When roto owners hear the name Dusty Baker two words quickly come to mind: Pitcher Abuse.

Dusty has a well-documented history of being a non-believer in managing pitch counts - much to the chagrin of former Mark Prior and Kerry Wood owners. Admittedly, there are a few 'freaks' who seem immune to the effects of excessive pitch counts: Carlos Zambrano and Livan Hernandez immediately come to mind. However, for merely mortal starting pitchers the science behind monitoring pitch counts is simply too powerful to ignore.

Bronson Arroyo's breakout 2006 season, and the high workload increase that came with it, caused the roto expert community to almost unanimously issue a 2007 breakdown warning. Arroyo went from 205.3 IP in 2005, to 240.7 IP in 2006 - a 17% increase.

The start of Arroyo's 2007 season seemed to validate the roto experts' views.

2006 Season --------- 3.29 ERA - 1.19 WHIP - .243 BAA - 6.88 K/9
2007 Pre All-Star --- 4.84 ERA - 1.48 WHIP - .288 BAA - 6.05 K/9

But Arroyo did have a decent bounce-back after the All-Star Break:

2007 Post All-Star -- 3.55 ERA - 1.31 WHIP - .271 BAA - 7.36 K/9

First, the good news. This bounce-back shows that Arroyo was able to work through his problems and get back to a higher level of performance, including a spike in his K/9 rate. Arroyo owners should expect an overall better performance for 2008. All things being equal, it would be fair to expect numbers in the range of his 2007 Post All-Star numbers.

That's where the bad news comes into play. All things aren't going to be equal: namely, the Cincinnati Reds' new manager Dusty Baker. A more detailed look into Arroyo's 2007 splits shows a recipe for disaster:

Innings 7-9 ------ .363 BAA
Pitches 91-105 -- .301 BAA
Pitches 106+ ---- .469 BAA

Given Baker's track record of pushing his starters deep into games and ignoring pitch counts, this does not bode well for Arroyo and his owners for 2008.

A couple of Arroyo's 2007 outings could serve as a horrible harbinger of his 2008 season:

4/4/2007
Arroyo entered the 8th inning having thrown 99 pitches. He promptly allowed back-to-back singles to Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez and was pulled from the game after 108 pitches. The Reds' bullpen came in and promptly allowed both Lee and Ramirez to score.

6/6/2007
Arroyo entered the 7th inning having thrown 103 pitches. He faced the next five batters with the following results: Fly Out, Home Run, Single, Strike Out, Home Run (A.Pujols). He then left the game having thrown 119 pitches.

If Arroyo leaves the game in the two above scenarios prior to the start of his final inning appearance, his 2007 Pre All-Star ERA would be lowered from 4.84 to 4.46.

If just two cases of borderline poor pitching management can cause such a negative impact, it doesn't take a vivid imagination to predict the devastating impact to Arroyo in the event that Baker continues his past pitching management approach.