- Strong Upward Trend
- Moderate Upward Trend
- Leveled Off
- Injuries Obscure Any Trend
The primary trends analyzed were as follows:
- Comparison of Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / OPS lines
- Comparison of Strikeout Rates (Strikeouts divided by At-Bats)
Strong Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)
- Robinson Cano (Age 25)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .274 / .427 / .741 and .159 K Rate
2007 Post All-Star -- .343 / .557 / .953 and .114 K Rate - David Wright (25)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .292 / .506 / .879 and .220 K Rate
2007 Post All-Star -- .364 / .596 / 1.061 and .154 K Rate - Adrian Gonzalez (26)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .264 / .469 / .808 and .246 K Rate
2007 Post All-Star -- .302 / .538 / .894 and .184 K Rate - Carl Crawford (26)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .285 / .445 / .781 and .209 K Rate
2007 Post All-Star -- .358 / .496 / .878 and .167 K Rate - Yuniesky Betancourt (26)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .271 / .366 / .663
2007 Post All-Star -- .311 / .481 / .802 - Aaron Hill (26)
2007 Pre All-Star ---.265 / .432 / .757
2007 Post All-Star -- .320 / .488 / .831 - Wily Mo Pena (26)
2007 BOS (156 ABs) --- .218 / .385 / .676 and .372 K Rate (Whiff King!)
2007 WAS (133 ABs) --- .293 / .504 / .856 and .271 K Rate
The key takeaways from the analysis of group:
- It's almost impossible for you to overpay for Cano, Wright, Adrian Gonzalez or Crawford. Don't be afraid to go the extra few dollars for these guys.
- Feel confident bidding that extra dollar or two for Y.Betancourt or A.Hill - you'll have much more upside than going with a comparably valued veteran.
- As for Wily Mo Pena, the upside has always been there and if he's going to breakout, this is likely the season he'll do it. He's heading into the season with the best shot at regular playing time he's had in his career, plus he's got his biggest fan in Jim Bowden squarely behind him in the front office.
Moderate Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)
- Yadier Molina (Age 25)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .268 / .325 / .651 and .134 K Rate
2007 Post All-Star -- .281 / .403 / .755 and .112 K Rate
You could do much worse in filling a catcher roster spot. Molina has enough experience at an early age to show continued improvement in 2008. - Hanley Ramirez (24)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .331 / .538 / .926 and .164 K Rate
2007 Post All-Star -- .332 / .591 / .975 and .129 K Rate
Is it posible Ramirez can keep getting better? In short, yes! With the increase in his OPS and drop in K Rate, he is capable of doing even better in 2008. - Ryan Zimmerman (23)
2006 Season -------- .287 / .471 / .822
2007 Pre All-Star --- .253 / .435 / .737 (sub-par first half)
2007 Post All-Star -- .282 / .486 / .847 (bounced back, but on par with 2006 season)
If the Nationals new ballpark is more offense-friendly, that alone will give Zimmerman a boost - couple that with the fact that he's only 23 and he has a good chance of showing a measurable improvement in 2008. - Prince Fielder (24)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .284 / .620 / .996 and .222 K Rate
2007 Post All-Star -- .293 / .614 / 1.033 and .197 K Rate
See Hanley Ramirez comment. It's unlikely Fielder will improve on his Home Run totals, but with an improving K Rate it's possible he'll hit over .300 in 2008. - Mark Teahen (26)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .251 K Rate
2007 Post All-Star -- .208 K Rate
Not that Teahen is terribly exciting, but he falls into the 'post-hype sleeper' category heading into 2008. He's poised for improvement. - Willy Taveras (26)
2005 Season -------- .174 K Rate
2006 Season -------- .166 K Rate
2007 Pre All-Star --- .159 K Rate
2007 Post All-Star -- .119 K Rate
The interesting thing here is that Taveras is showing a consistently dropping K Rate. More balls in play means more times on base which means more steal opportunities. Taveras could lead the league in steals if he can stay healthy. - Jorge Cantu (26) small sample size warning!
2007 Tampa Bay (58 ABs) -- .207 / .224 / .501
2007 Cincinnati (57 ABs) ---- .298 / .491 / .873
Is it possible for Cantu to bounce back and become relevant again? Yes, it is. A change of scenery may have been just what he needed to break out of his funk. Don't go crazy bidding on Cantu, but don't be afraid to pay the going rate.
Leveled Off
- Miguel Cabrera (Age 25)
- Jose Reyes (25)
- Grady Sizemore (25)
- Jhonny Peralta (26)
- Jeff Francoeur (24)
Nothing too noteworthy in the trend analysis for this group. As for Cabrera and Reyes, what more could you want from these two?! The one point of interest from this group is regarding Jeff Francoeur. Francoeur is plastered all over 'Breakout Candidate' lists everywhere - but I'm not buying it. His K Rate was constant in 2007 (.203 before the break, and .201 after), and though his Walk Rate did improve from 2006 to 2007 - it's not enough of an improvement to sway my opinion.
Injuries Obscure Any Trend
- Rocco Baldelli (Age 26) - his devastating hamstring injury made the 2007 season all but a total loss. We'll have to see how he's able to rebound and if he can stay healthy. It wasn't that long ago that Jose Reyes was facing similar hamstring issues and he's been able to work through them and stay healthy, let's hope Baldelli can do the same.
- Joe Mauer (25)
2006 Season -- .347 / .507 / .936
April 2007 ---- .369 / .512 / .977
One month of action certainly raises the small sample size alert, but for Mauer who suffered through a variety of injuries in 2007 - it shows that he is still the same guy who put up those 2006 numbers. Again, assuming he can remain healthly in 2008.
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more
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