Feb 29, 2008

1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Quick recap of the concept for this series: The 'Sell' players are basically going in higher rounds or for more auction money than they truly warrant based on what they'll likely produce for 2008. The 'Buy' players are just the opposite, going in lower rounds or for less money than what they'll likely produce for 2008.

1st Basemen to SELL:

  • Carlos Delgado

    Delgado put up the worst full season numbers of his entire career in 2007. His .258 average, 24 home runs, and 87 RBI were all career lows. While he did have a bit of a 2nd half bounce back in 2007, batting .285 - the signs of decline are undeniable. It is out of the realm of likelihood to expect a bounceback to his 2006 numbers of .265-38-114. I wouldn't expect too much of a dropoff from his 2007 line though - but that doesn't warrant his current draft position or auction salary going rate.

  • There really aren't any other strong SELL candidates in the 1st Basement player pool. It's a deep position and for the most part the players are being drafted as they should be, with the exception of a couple of BUY candidates.

1st Basemen to BUY:

  • Conor Jackson

    Jackson's 2007 trend line was covered in the previous post Under 27 Up-and-Coming Hitters - Pt. 3 - with Tony Clark out of the picture and the full-time job handed over to him, 2008 is Jackson's year to shine. He will easily outproduce Carlos Delgado in 2008 and beyond - and for a much lower draft position or auction salary than the current 2008 draft trend.

  • Nick Johnson

    Johnson is a bit of a forgotten man in many roto circles after missing the entire 2007 season recovering from a broken right femur suffered in a horrible collision with teammate Austin Kearns the last week of the 2006 season. While he is very injury-prone and a notoriously slow healer, it is worthy to note that virtually none of his injuries are of a chronic nature. They have all been acute traumas: the 2006 broken leg, a 2005 deep bone bruise to his heel that cost him a month of the season, a 2004 broken cheekbone that cost him the final seven weeks of the season and a lumbar strain that cost him the first seven weeks. In 2006, Johnson played in 147 games, the most in a single season in his career, and he hit .290-23-78 with 100 runs scored in a horrible offensive home park. If Johnson is showing that his swing is back in spring training, he could be a major bargain in NL-only league especially.

Other posts in the spring training buy/sell recommendations series:

Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations

2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Shortstops: Buy/Sell Recommendations

3rd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

No comments: