Dominating the AL-Only 5x5 Roto League

Well, maybe not DOMINATING.....we'll see. Last night I finished my AL-Only, one year 5x5 roto league with some very surprising results. First off, I try to ignore as much 'conventional wisdom' as possible and do my own analysis, forecasting and ranking of players. With that approach it's not surprising that I would draft quite differently from 'the crowd', but I was surprised at just HOW different that would end up!

I picked 9th in a 10 team league. NOT the spot you want, especially for AL-Only!

I am going to list my picks as follows:
PICK # - PLAYER (recent draft Average Draft Position (ADP), highest ADP OR highest-lowest ADP)
GREEN represents a bargain as compared to 'the crowd'
RED represents a major deviation from 'the crowd'

009 - Alex Rios (9 adp, 9 hi - 9 lo)
012 - C.C. Sabathia (27 adp, 22 hi)
029 - J.Ellsbury (63 adp, 60 hi)
032 - H.Street (58 adp, 55 hi)
049 - D.Young (55 adp, 51 hi)
052 - N.Swisher (42 adp, 35 hi - 45 lo)
069 - O.Cabrera (60 adp, 53 hi - 66 lo)
072 - D.Pedroia (81 adp, 75 hi)
089 - A.Jones (150 adp, 106 hi)
092 - J.Bonderman (78 adp, 74 hi - 81 lo)
109 - E.Brown (ND adp)
112 - E.Longoria (122 adp, 95 hi - 145 lo)
129 - M.Garza (118 adp, 110 hi - 125 lo)
132 - J.Gomes (140 adp, 126 hi - 150 lo)
149 - M.Thames (191 adp, 188 hi - 209 lo)
152 - K.Slowey (199 adp, 142 hi - ND lo)
169 - J.Lester (132 adp, 130 hi - 141 lo)
172 - P.Neshek (138 adp, 126 hi - 151 lo)
189 - D.Navarro (197 adp, 175 hi - ND lo)
192 - E.German (249 adp, 216 hi - ND lo)
209 - J.Benoit (162 adp, 153 hi - 176 lo)
212 - R.Perez (228 adp, 186 hi - ND lo)
229 - S.Duncan
232 - R.Raburn
249 - J.Devine
252 - K.Morales
269 - B.Wood
272 - J.Howell

For those keeping score at home:

NINE picks where I 'bucked the crowd':

• C.Sabathia - at #12, 10 picks earlier than #22 - earliest 'crowd' pick (ECP)
• J.Ellsbury - at #29, 31 picks earlier than #60 ECP
• H.Street - at #32, 23 picks earlier than #55 ECP
• Delmon Young - at #49, 2 picks earlier than #51 ECP
• D.Pedroia - at #72, 3 picks earlier than #75 ECP
• Adam Jones - at #89, 17 picks earlier than #106 ECP
• Emil Brown - at #109, 140 picks earlier than NOT DRAFTED ECP
• M.Thames - at #149, 39 picks earlier than #188 ECP
• E.German - at #192, 24 picks earlier than #216 ECP

SEVEN picks where I 'beat the crowd':

• Swisher - at #52, 7 picks later than #45 - latest 'crowd' pick (LCP)
• O.Cabrera - at #69, 3 picks later than #66 LCP
• J.Bonderman - at #92, 11 picks later than #81 LCP
• M.Garza - at #129, 4 picks later than #125 LCP
• J.Lester - at #169, 28 picks later than #141 LCP
• P.Neshek - at #172, 21 picks later than #151 LCP
• J.Benoit - at #209, 33 picks later than #176 LCP

It's going to be an interesting year - if at least 5 of my 9 'bucked the crowd' picks don't turn out to be good moves, then clearly I will be toast!

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