Roto Advantage: Under 27 Up-and-Coming Hitters

The 17 hitters listed in Tier 2 (between 800 and 1,200 career at-bats) can also be grouped into four categories:

Strong Upward Trend
Moderate Upward Trend
Leveled Off
Statistical Oddities

Again, the primary trends analyzed were as follows:

Comparison of Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / OPS lines
Comparison of Strikeout Rates (Strikeouts divided by At-Bats)
In a couple of relevant instances, ABs per HR were also analyzed

Strong Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

Dioner Navarro (Age 24 - 839 career ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .177 / .254 / .492 and 209 ABs per HR
2007 Post All-Star -- .285 / .475 / .815 and 22.4 ABs per HR

A truly amazing turnaround for Navarro, especially going from one homerun in the 1st half to eight homers in just 129 2nd half at-bats. Navarro may finally be turning the corner and be ready to fulfill the above-average offense forecasts that were hung on him in his days as a highly touted prospect.
Matt Murton (25 - 830 ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .252 / .336 / .667 and 119 ABs per HR
2007 Post All-Star -- .310 / .543 / .918 and 16.6 ABs per HR

A similar turnaround to Navarro's, Murton hit just one homerun in the 1st half, but slugged seven in only 116 2nd half at-bats. With the Cubs signing of outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, Murton will start the season as the fourth outfielder. Felix Pie's development is the most significant factor impacting Murton's playing time.
Nick Markakis (24 - 1128 ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .279 / .431 / .771
2007 Post All-Star -- .325 / .550 / .939

A nice 2nd half jump for Markakis across the board. Look for a 2008 season line closer to those numbers.
Rickie Weeks (25 - 1140 ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .221 / .392 / .720 and .261 K Rate
2007 Post All-Star -- .251 / .422 / .903 and .310 K Rate

Weeks is smattered across sleeper/breakout lists everywhere, but don't go overboard here. While his main batting stats did bounce back, he also experienced a significant increase in his K Rate. Still, it is hard to ignore the nine homers in 98 September at-bats.
Conor Jackson (26 - 985 ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .266 / .399 / .765
2007 Post All-Star -- .308 / .555 / .926

Many thought heading into the 2007 season that Jackson was poised for a major breakout - myself included. Perhaps we were just a year early. Tony Clark's departure puts CoJack in line for more regular duty in 2008.
Edwin Encarnacion (25 - 1119 ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star ---.270 / .391 / .744 and .195 K Rate
2007 Post All-Star -- .309 / .488 / .848 and .146 K Rate

Encarnacion posted solid batting line improvement in the 2nd half of 2007, but perhaps most promising is the declining K Rate. For 2008, a .300-25-100-10 line for Encarnacion is definitely within reach.

Moderate Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

Corey Hart (Age 26 - 800 career ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .298 / .508 / .876
2007 Post All-Star -- .292 / .568 / .906

By all accounts, Hart did have a breakout season in 2007. He maintained a fairly level performance throughout the 2nd half, punctuated by a nice increase in slugging percentage.

Ian Kinsler (26 - 906 ABs)
2007 Pre All-Star --- .241 / .452 / .786
2007 Post All-Star -- .288 / .428 / .807

Kinsler bounced back from a slow 1st half to post a 2nd half batting line on par with his 2006 season line of .286 / .454 / .801 - look for a small improvement in 2008.

Russell Martin (25 - 955 ABs)
2006 Season -------- .282 / .436 / .791
2007 Pre All-Star --- .306 / .492 / .866 (stellar first half)
2007 Post All-Star -- .275 / .438 / .813 (dropped off, but on par with 2006 season)

It's understandable Martin would suffer a 2nd half dropoff after being one of most heavily used starting catchers in the majors. His September line of .259 / .395 / .725 really shows the impact of a full season behind the plate. Look for a similar pattern in 2008, although hopefully the Dodgers will give Martin a bit more rest in the first half to keep his 2nd half line more level.

Leveled Off

Brian McCann (Age 25 - 1126 career ABs)

McCann suffered a dropoff across the board in 2007, with a slight recovery in his 2nd half batting line. One interesting stat is McCann's K Rate, which was .122 in 2006, then a .158 / .135 1st half / 2nd half split in 2007.

J.J. Hardy (25 - 1092 ABs)

Which Hardy will we see in 2008: the 1st half power monster? Or the 2nd half merely 'above average offensive shortstop'? Hardy suffered a near total power outage in July with no homers, but did bounce back with a solid August line of .292 / .509 / .821 which was on par with his first half line of .280 / .495 / .833. I think we'll see a 2008 line closer to this level for Hardy, proving that his fast start in 2007 was indeed not a fluke.

B.J. Upton (23 - 808 ABs)

Upton dropped off a bit in the 2nd half, but did improve his K rate from .340 to .314 - still quite high, but he's still just 23. Look for more improvement from Upton in 2008.

Kelly Johnson (26 - 811 ABs)

Johnson suffered a minor dropoff in the 2nd half, which is understandable when you consider he only logged 58 minor league at-bats in 2006 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. With Edgar Renteria now gone and Yunel Escobar moving to shortstop, Johnson is in line for full-time duty at second base and hitting leadoff for 2008.

Melky Cabrera (23 - 1024 ABs)

2006 Season -------- .280 / .391 / .751
2007 Season -------- .273 / .391 / .718
2007 May-Aug ----- .314 / .473 / .842

Cabrera had an interesting 2007 - he got off to a horrible April and ended with an equally bad September, but in between he showed marked improvement over his 2006 season line.

Andre Ethier (26 - 843 ABs)

Ethier suffered a slight drop off in 2007 overall, but his 2nd half numbers did bounce back to his 2006 season levels. Ethier should continue to improve and only needs to win at least a share of left field at Chavez Ravine to put up a nice 2008 line in the neighborhood of .300-15-75-5, assuming he can get another two starts each week by spelling Andruw Jones and Matt Kemp on occasion.

Statistical Oddities

Wilson Betemit (Age 26 - 909 career ABs)

The following stat line tells you everything you need to know:
.464 / 1.081 / .765 / 1.177 / .659 / .740
The above line is the breakdown of Betemit's OPS by month in 2007. Clearly the upside is still there, but I can't see any discernible pattern in his numbers that shouts 'Breakout approaching!'.

Josh Barfield (25 - 959 ABs)
2006 Season -- .280 / .423 / .741 (mind you in a horrible offensive home park - Petco!)
2007 Season -- .243 / .324 / .594
2007 June ---- .317 / .365 / .680

Other than the month of June, Barfield and all his owners would just as soon forget the 2007 season. And despite the nice .317 batting average in June, he only slugged .365 and posted an OPS of .680 - both well off his 2006 numbers. My heart tells me 'buy' on Barfield, but my head doesn't want any part of him!