3rd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Quick recap of the concept for this series: The 'Sell' players are basically going in higher rounds or for more auction money than they truly warrant based on what they'll likely produce for 2008. The 'Buy' players are just the opposite, going in lower rounds or for less money than what they'll likely produce for 2008.


3rd Basemen to SELL:

• Adrian Beltre
  
  Don't get me wrong, Beltre is a good 3rd baseman, a very good one in fact. The problem is that he has pretty much settled into a steady state of production - you're going to get around .280 - 25 HR - 92 RBI - 85 runs - 10 steals from him in all likelihood. That's roughly what he's averaged over the past 3 seasons with not much variation from year to year. It's not often you see a hitter post his career season at 24 years old, but it appears that may just be the case with Beltre's 2004 season when he hit .334 with 48 home runs and 121 RBI. The number of owners out there expecting a repeat of this performance are quickly dwindling. You can get Beltre's production from Edwin Encarnacion, only using a pick 3 to 4 rounds later or spending $6-9 less of your auction money.
  


• Mike Lowell
  
  Lowell is going pretty high in drafts - high enough assuming he comes even close to replicating his 2007 success, but not high enough to justify his likely 2008 production. At 33 years of age, Lowell hit .324 in 2007, his next best single season average was .293 in 2004. Lowell hit 21 home runs in 2007, a mark he's bested just three other season (24 in 2002, 27 in 2004 and 32 in 2003). Lowell's 120 RBI in 2007 is also a career high - his next two best seasons were 2001 (100 RBI) and 2003 (105 RBI). Don't get too pulled in by the Red Sox hype, the excellent surrounding lineup or even the World Series MVP.

3rd Basemen to BUY:

• Edwin Encarnacion
  
  Encarnacion finally started to show consistency in the 2nd half of 2007. Perhaps most important was the fact that his K-Rate dropped to .146 from his 1st half K-Rate of .195. For 2008, a .300-25-100-90-10 line for Encarnacion is definitely within reach.
  


• Kevin Kouzmanoff
  
  Just take a look at Kouzmanoff's 2007 2nd half line of .317 / .524 / .890 with 11 home runs as a decent indicator of what he can do in 2008. Ffor 2008, Kouzmanoff should hit around .300 with 24 homers, 85+ RBI and 75+ Runs.
  

Other posts in the spring training buy/sell recommendations series:

Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations
1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations
2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations
Shortstops: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Top 25 NL Prospects for 2008 and 2009

Here's the Top 25 list of NL prospects in terms of potential impact in 2008 and 2009 - which includes major weighting on opportunity for meaningful playing time.

Any prospects not likely to be ready for a major role by the 2nd Half of 2009 are excluded - the top prospects that fall into this 'excluded' list include Jarrod Parker-RHP-ARI, Fernando Martinez-OF-NYM, Angel Villalona-3B-SF and Josh Vitters-3B-CHC.

1. Cameron Maybin, OF, FLA
2. Joey Votto, 1B, CIN
3. Jay Bruce, OF, CIN
4. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, LAD
5. Chase Headley, 3B/OF, SD
6. Colby Rasmus, OF, STL
7. Andy LaRoche, 3B, LAD
8. Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT
9. Steven Pearce, 1B/OF, PIT
10. Franklin Morales, LHP, COL
11. Johnny Cueto, RHP, CIN
12. Geovany Soto, C, CHC
13. Manny Parra, LHP, MIL
14. J.R. Towles, C, HOU
15. Matt Antonelli, 2B, SD
16. Brandon Jones, OF, ATL
17. Jordan Schafer, OF, ATL
18. Chris Marrero, 1B/OF, WAS
19. Ian Stewart, 3B, COL
20. Matt LaPorta, OF, MIL
21. Chin-Lung Hu, SS, LAD
22. Max Scherzer, RHP, ARI
23. Ross Detwiler, LHP, WAS
24. Carlos Carrasco, RHP, PHI
25. Chris Volstad, RHP, FLA

DIDN'T MAKE THE CUT: Homer Bailey, RHP, CIN

OTHER PROSPECT POST:
Top 25 AL Prospects for 2008 and 2009

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Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 20th Spring Training Highlights

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from Johan Santana, Brad Penny, Kevin Slowey, Tim Hudson, Homer Bailey, Justin Verlander, Manny Parra and Ian Kennedy.

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Under 27 Breakout Candidates -Pt 2 with analysis of Robinson Cano, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Yuniesky Betancourt, Aaron Hill, Wily Mo Pena, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teahen, Willy Taveras, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, Rocco Baldelli and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 19th Spring Training Highlights

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Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more

Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 18th Spring Training Highlights

Highlights (and some lowlights) from yesterday's spring training games including outings from Jeremy Bonderman, Cole Hamels, Matt Garza and Clayton Kershaw.

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Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more
Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Good-Bad-Ugly: Mar 17th

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Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more

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Dominating the AL-Only 5x5 Roto League

Well, maybe not DOMINATING.....we'll see. Last night I finished my AL-Only, one year 5x5 roto league with some very surprising results. First off, I try to ignore as much 'conventional wisdom' as possible and do my own analysis, forecasting and ranking of players. With that approach it's not surprising that I would draft quite differently from 'the crowd', but I was surprised at just HOW different that would end up!

I picked 9th in a 10 team league. NOT the spot you want, especially for AL-Only!

I am going to list my picks as follows:
PICK # - PLAYER (recent draft Average Draft Position (ADP), highest ADP OR highest-lowest ADP)
GREEN represents a bargain as compared to 'the crowd'
RED represents a major deviation from 'the crowd'

009 - Alex Rios (9 adp, 9 hi - 9 lo)
012 - C.C. Sabathia (27 adp, 22 hi)
029 - J.Ellsbury (63 adp, 60 hi)
032 - H.Street (58 adp, 55 hi)
049 - D.Young (55 adp, 51 hi)
052 - N.Swisher (42 adp, 35 hi - 45 lo)
069 - O.Cabrera (60 adp, 53 hi - 66 lo)
072 - D.Pedroia (81 adp, 75 hi)
089 - A.Jones (150 adp, 106 hi)
092 - J.Bonderman (78 adp, 74 hi - 81 lo)
109 - E.Brown (ND adp)
112 - E.Longoria (122 adp, 95 hi - 145 lo)
129 - M.Garza (118 adp, 110 hi - 125 lo)
132 - J.Gomes (140 adp, 126 hi - 150 lo)
149 - M.Thames (191 adp, 188 hi - 209 lo)
152 - K.Slowey (199 adp, 142 hi - ND lo)
169 - J.Lester (132 adp, 130 hi - 141 lo)
172 - P.Neshek (138 adp, 126 hi - 151 lo)
189 - D.Navarro (197 adp, 175 hi - ND lo)
192 - E.German (249 adp, 216 hi - ND lo)
209 - J.Benoit (162 adp, 153 hi - 176 lo)
212 - R.Perez (228 adp, 186 hi - ND lo)
229 - S.Duncan
232 - R.Raburn
249 - J.Devine
252 - K.Morales
269 - B.Wood
272 - J.Howell

For those keeping score at home:

NINE picks where I 'bucked the crowd':

• C.Sabathia - at #12, 10 picks earlier than #22 - earliest 'crowd' pick (ECP)
• J.Ellsbury - at #29, 31 picks earlier than #60 ECP
• H.Street - at #32, 23 picks earlier than #55 ECP
• Delmon Young - at #49, 2 picks earlier than #51 ECP
• D.Pedroia - at #72, 3 picks earlier than #75 ECP
• Adam Jones - at #89, 17 picks earlier than #106 ECP
• Emil Brown - at #109, 140 picks earlier than NOT DRAFTED ECP
• M.Thames - at #149, 39 picks earlier than #188 ECP
• E.German - at #192, 24 picks earlier than #216 ECP

SEVEN picks where I 'beat the crowd':

• Swisher - at #52, 7 picks later than #45 - latest 'crowd' pick (LCP)
• O.Cabrera - at #69, 3 picks later than #66 LCP
• J.Bonderman - at #92, 11 picks later than #81 LCP
• M.Garza - at #129, 4 picks later than #125 LCP
• J.Lester - at #169, 28 picks later than #141 LCP
• P.Neshek - at #172, 21 picks later than #151 LCP
• J.Benoit - at #209, 33 picks later than #176 LCP

It's going to be an interesting year - if at least 5 of my 9 'bucked the crowd' picks don't turn out to be good moves, then clearly I will be toast!

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