Betting The Bank: Who needs roster diversification?

I play in four different NL-only roto leagues. Two are keeper salary leagues and two are one-year draft leagues. I just finished the second of one-year draft leagues last night and looking across those two rosters, plus the keepers I have heading into the auctions in my other leagues, here are the players I own on THREE out of FOUR teams:

• Andre Ethier
• Ryan Zimmerman
• Franklin Morales
• Brett Myers
• Lastings Milledge
• Matt Kemp
• Chris B. Young - OF
• Conor Jackson

If most of this set of eight players does well in 2008, I'll be looking pretty good. If most of them tank, I'm toast!

I'm a very strong believer in most of these guys, it's no coincidence I've covered each of them as breakout candidates in the Under 27 Up-and-Coming Hitters series.

The fact that I own Franklin Morales in so many leagues is more indicative of the way the two one-year drafts went. In each of these leagues I got through about 15-16 rounds not feeling too great about my starting pitching, so I figured I needed to draft for more of high-risk / high-reward pitchers.

Recap - Top 'Under 27' Breakout Candidates

Before posting the next of the 'Under 27' series - here's a quick recap of the Top 11 'Under 27' breakout candidates for 2008, so far (all the players with more than 800 career at-bats):

1. Dioner Navarro
2. Matt Murton
3. Nick Markakis
4. Rickie Weeks
5. Conor Jackson
6. Edwin Encarnacion
7. Yuniesky Betancourt
8. Aaron Hill
9. Wily Mo Pena
10. Yadier Molina
11. Ryan Zimmerman

Note: This list is ranked by projected increase over career line to this point - that's why you see Dioner Navarro at the top spot - he hasn't done much at all yet, whereas Ryan Zimmerman is #11 on the list because he's already put up some very solid numbers, but will continue to show significant improvement in 2008.

Under 27 Up-and-Coming Hitters - Pt. 3

The 17 hitters listed in Tier 2 (between 800 and 1,200 career at-bats) can also be grouped into four categories:

• Strong Upward Trend
• Moderate Upward Trend
• Leveled Off
• Statistical Oddities

Again, the primary trends analyzed were as follows:

• Comparison of Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / OPS lines
• Comparison of Strikeout Rates (Strikeouts divided by At-Bats)
• In a couple of relevant instances, ABs per HR were also analyzed

Strong Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

1. Dioner Navarro (Age 24 - 839 career ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .177 / .254 / .492 and 209 ABs per HR
   2007 Post All-Star -- .285 / .475 / .815 and 22.4 ABs per HR
   
   A truly amazing turnaround for Navarro, especially going from one homerun in the 1st half to eight homers in just 129 2nd half at-bats. Navarro may finally be turning the corner and be ready to fulfill the above-average offense forecasts that were hung on him in his days as a highly touted prospect.
   
   
2. Matt Murton (25 - 830 ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .252 / .336 / .667 and 119 ABs per HR
   2007 Post All-Star -- .310 / .543 / .918 and 16.6 ABs per HR
   
   A similar turnaround to Navarro's, Murton hit just one homerun in the 1st half, but slugged seven in only 116 2nd half at-bats. With the Cubs signing of outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, Murton will start the season as the fourth outfielder. Felix Pie's development is the most significant factor impacting Murton's playing time.
   
   
3. Nick Markakis (24 - 1128 ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .279 / .431 / .771
   2007 Post All-Star -- .325 / .550 / .939
   
   A nice 2nd half jump for Markakis across the board. Look for a 2008 season line closer to those numbers.
   
   
4. Rickie Weeks (25 - 1140 ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .221 / .392 / .720 and .261 K Rate
   2007 Post All-Star -- .251 / .422 / .903 and .310 K Rate
   
   Weeks is smattered across sleeper/breakout lists everywhere, but don't go overboard here. While his main batting stats did bounce back, he also experienced a significant increase in his K Rate. Still, it is hard to ignore the nine homers in 98 September at-bats.
   
   
5. Conor Jackson (26 - 985 ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .266 / .399 / .765
   2007 Post All-Star -- .308 / .555 / .926
   
   Many thought heading into the 2007 season that Jackson was poised for a major breakout - myself included. Perhaps we were just a year early. Tony Clark's departure puts CoJack in line for more regular duty in 2008.
   
   
6. Edwin Encarnacion (25 - 1119 ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star ---.270 / .391 / .744 and .195 K Rate
   2007 Post All-Star -- .309 / .488 / .848 and .146 K Rate
   
   Encarnacion posted solid batting line improvement in the 2nd half of 2007, but perhaps most promising is the declining K Rate. For 2008, a .300-25-100-10 line for Encarnacion is definitely within reach.
   
   

Moderate Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

1. Corey Hart (Age 26 - 800 career ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .298 / .508 / .876
   2007 Post All-Star -- .292 / .568 / .906
   
   By all accounts, Hart did have a breakout season in 2007. He maintained a fairly level performance throughout the 2nd half, punctuated by a nice increase in slugging percentage.
   


2. Ian Kinsler (26 - 906 ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .241 / .452 / .786
   2007 Post All-Star -- .288 / .428 / .807
   
   Kinsler bounced back from a slow 1st half to post a 2nd half batting line on par with his 2006 season line of .286 / .454 / .801 - look for a small improvement in 2008.
   


3. Russell Martin (25 - 955 ABs)
   2006 Season -------- .282 / .436 / .791
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .306 / .492 / .866 (stellar first half)
   2007 Post All-Star -- .275 / .438 / .813 (dropped off, but on par with 2006 season)
   
   It's understandable Martin would suffer a 2nd half dropoff after being one of most heavily used starting catchers in the majors. His September line of .259 / .395 / .725 really shows the impact of a full season behind the plate. Look for a similar pattern in 2008, although hopefully the Dodgers will give Martin a bit more rest in the first half to keep his 2nd half line more level.
   

Leveled Off

1. Brian McCann (Age 25 - 1126 career ABs)
   
   McCann suffered a dropoff across the board in 2007, with a slight recovery in his 2nd half batting line. One interesting stat is McCann's K Rate, which was .122 in 2006, then a .158 / .135 1st half / 2nd half split in 2007.
   


2. J.J. Hardy (25 - 1092 ABs)
   
   Which Hardy will we see in 2008: the 1st half power monster? Or the 2nd half merely 'above average offensive shortstop'? Hardy suffered a near total power outage in July with no homers, but did bounce back with a solid August line of .292 / .509 / .821 which was on par with his first half line of .280 / .495 / .833. I think we'll see a 2008 line closer to this level for Hardy, proving that his fast start in 2007 was indeed not a fluke.
   


3. B.J. Upton (23 - 808 ABs)
   
   Upton dropped off a bit in the 2nd half, but did improve his K rate from .340 to .314 - still quite high, but he's still just 23. Look for more improvement from Upton in 2008.
   


4. Kelly Johnson (26 - 811 ABs)
   
   Johnson suffered a minor dropoff in the 2nd half, which is understandable when you consider he only logged 58 minor league at-bats in 2006 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. With Edgar Renteria now gone and Yunel Escobar moving to shortstop, Johnson is in line for full-time duty at second base and hitting leadoff for 2008.
   


5. Melky Cabrera (23 - 1024 ABs)
   
   2006 Season -------- .280 / .391 / .751
   2007 Season -------- .273 / .391 / .718
   2007 May-Aug ----- .314 / .473 / .842
   
   Cabrera had an interesting 2007 - he got off to a horrible April and ended with an equally bad September, but in between he showed marked improvement over his 2006 season line.
   


6. Andre Ethier (26 - 843 ABs)
   
   Ethier suffered a slight drop off in 2007 overall, but his 2nd half numbers did bounce back to his 2006 season levels. Ethier should continue to improve and only needs to win at least a share of left field at Chavez Ravine to put up a nice 2008 line in the neighborhood of .300-15-75-5, assuming he can get another two starts each week by spelling Andruw Jones and Matt Kemp on occasion.
   

Statistical Oddities

1. Wilson Betemit (Age 26 - 909 career ABs)
   
   The following stat line tells you everything you need to know:
   .464 / 1.081 / .765 / 1.177 / .659 / .740
   The above line is the breakdown of Betemit's OPS by month in 2007. Clearly the upside is still there, but I can't see any discernible pattern in his numbers that shouts 'Breakout approaching!'.
   


2. Josh Barfield (25 - 959 ABs)
   2006 Season -- .280 / .423 / .741 (mind you in a horrible offensive home park - Petco!)
   2007 Season -- .243 / .324 / .594
   2007 June ---- .317 / .365 / .680
   
   Other than the month of June, Barfield and all his owners would just as soon forget the 2007 season. And despite the nice .317 batting average in June, he only slugged .365 and posted an OPS of .680 - both well off his 2006 numbers. My heart tells me 'buy' on Barfield, but my head doesn't want any part of him!
   

OTHER POSTS IN THIS SERIES:

Under 27 Breakout Candidates -Pt 2 with analysis of Robinson Cano, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Yuniesky Betancourt, Aaron Hill, Wily Mo Pena, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teahen, Willy Taveras, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, Rocco Baldelli and more

Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

Under 27 Up-and-Coming Hitters - Pt. 2

The 21 hitters listed in Tier 1 (more than 1,200 career at-bats) can be grouped into four categories:

• Strong Upward Trend
• Moderate Upward Trend
• Leveled Off
• Injuries Obscure Any Trend

The primary trends analyzed were as follows:

• Comparison of Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / OPS lines
• Comparison of Strikeout Rates (Strikeouts divided by At-Bats)

Strong Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

1. Robinson Cano (Age 25)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .274 / .427 / .741 and .159 K Rate
   2007 Post All-Star -- .343 / .557 / .953 and .114 K Rate
   
   
2. David Wright (25)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .292 / .506 / .879 and .220 K Rate
   2007 Post All-Star -- .364 / .596 / 1.061 and .154 K Rate
   
   
3. Adrian Gonzalez (26)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .264 / .469 / .808 and .246 K Rate
   2007 Post All-Star -- .302 / .538 / .894 and .184 K Rate
   
   
4. Carl Crawford (26)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .285 / .445 / .781 and .209 K Rate
   2007 Post All-Star -- .358 / .496 / .878 and .167 K Rate
   
   
5. Yuniesky Betancourt (26)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .271 / .366 / .663
   2007 Post All-Star -- .311 / .481 / .802
   
   
6. Aaron Hill (26)
   2007 Pre All-Star ---.265 / .432 / .757
   2007 Post All-Star -- .320 / .488 / .831
   
   
7. Wily Mo Pena (26)
   2007 BOS (156 ABs) --- .218 / .385 / .676 and .372 K Rate (Whiff King!)
   2007 WAS (133 ABs) --- .293 / .504 / .856 and .271 K Rate

The key takeaways from the analysis of group:

• It's almost impossible for you to overpay for Cano, Wright, Adrian Gonzalez or Crawford. Don't be afraid to go the extra few dollars for these guys.
• Feel confident bidding that extra dollar or two for Y.Betancourt or A.Hill - you'll have much more upside than going with a comparably valued veteran.
• As for Wily Mo Pena, the upside has always been there and if he's going to breakout, this is likely the season he'll do it. He's heading into the season with the best shot at regular playing time he's had in his career, plus he's got his biggest fan in Jim Bowden squarely behind him in the front office.

Moderate Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

1. Yadier Molina (Age 25)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .268 / .325 / .651 and .134 K Rate
   2007 Post All-Star -- .281 / .403 / .755 and .112 K Rate
   
   You could do much worse in filling a catcher roster spot. Molina has enough experience at an early age to show continued improvement in 2008.
   
   
2. Hanley Ramirez (24)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .331 / .538 / .926 and .164 K Rate
   2007 Post All-Star -- .332 / .591 / .975 and .129 K Rate
   
   Is it posible Ramirez can keep getting better? In short, yes! With the increase in his OPS and drop in K Rate, he is capable of doing even better in 2008.
   
   
3. Ryan Zimmerman (23)
   2006 Season -------- .287 / .471 / .822
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .253 / .435 / .737 (sub-par first half)
   2007 Post All-Star -- .282 / .486 / .847 (bounced back, but on par with 2006 season)
   
   If the Nationals new ballpark is more offense-friendly, that alone will give Zimmerman a boost - couple that with the fact that he's only 23 and he has a good chance of showing a measurable improvement in 2008.
   
   
4. Prince Fielder (24)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .284 / .620 / .996 and .222 K Rate
   2007 Post All-Star -- .293 / .614 / 1.033 and .197 K Rate
   
   See Hanley Ramirez comment. It's unlikely Fielder will improve on his Home Run totals, but with an improving K Rate it's possible he'll hit over .300 in 2008.
   
   
5. Mark Teahen (26)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .251 K Rate
   2007 Post All-Star -- .208 K Rate
   
   Not that Teahen is terribly exciting, but he falls into the 'post-hype sleeper' category heading into 2008. He's poised for improvement.
   
   
6. Willy Taveras (26)
   2005 Season -------- .174 K Rate
   2006 Season -------- .166 K Rate
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .159 K Rate
   2007 Post All-Star -- .119 K Rate
   
   The interesting thing here is that Taveras is showing a consistently dropping K Rate. More balls in play means more times on base which means more steal opportunities. Taveras could lead the league in steals if he can stay healthy.
   
   
7. Jorge Cantu (26) small sample size warning!
   2007 Tampa Bay (58 ABs) -- .207 / .224 / .501
   2007 Cincinnati (57 ABs) ---- .298 / .491 / .873
   
   Is it possible for Cantu to bounce back and become relevant again? Yes, it is. A change of scenery may have been just what he needed to break out of his funk. Don't go crazy bidding on Cantu, but don't be afraid to pay the going rate.

Leveled Off

1. Miguel Cabrera (Age 25)
2. Jose Reyes (25)
3. Grady Sizemore (25)
4. Jhonny Peralta (26)
5. Jeff Francoeur (24)
   
   Nothing too noteworthy in the trend analysis for this group. As for Cabrera and Reyes, what more could you want from these two?! The one point of interest from this group is regarding Jeff Francoeur. Francoeur is plastered all over 'Breakout Candidate' lists everywhere - but I'm not buying it. His K Rate was constant in 2007 (.203 before the break, and .201 after), and though his Walk Rate did improve from 2006 to 2007 - it's not enough of an improvement to sway my opinion.

Injuries Obscure Any Trend

1. Rocco Baldelli (Age 26) - his devastating hamstring injury made the 2007 season all but a total loss. We'll have to see how he's able to rebound and if he can stay healthy. It wasn't that long ago that Jose Reyes was facing similar hamstring issues and he's been able to work through them and stay healthy, let's hope Baldelli can do the same.
   
   
2. Joe Mauer (25)
   2006 Season -- .347 / .507 / .936
   April 2007 ---- .369 / .512 / .977
   
   One month of action certainly raises the small sample size alert, but for Mauer who suffered through a variety of injuries in 2007 - it shows that he is still the same guy who put up those 2006 numbers. Again, assuming he can remain healthly in 2008.
   
   

OTHER POSTS IN THIS SERIES:

Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more

Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 4 with analysis of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel, Nate McLouth, Chris B. Young, Howie Kendrick, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp, Dustin Pedroia, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman and more

The List of 'Under 27' Up-and-Coming Hitters - Pt. 1

This is the first post in a series that will analyze the top young hitters in baseball. The analysis will focus on hitters who will still be under 27 years old as of June 30th of the upcoming season.

The goal of this analysis is to identify what hitters are poised for a breakout season. Now there are breakout seasons, and there are BREAKOUT seasons. Obviously a number of names on this list have already broken out, but that doesn't mean they've peaked by any means. Still others on this list have yet to take any monster steps developmentally, but could be on the verge of doing just that during the 2008 season.

Here's a quick example to illustrate the point: heading into the 2006 season, Matt Holliday would have appeared on 'Tier 2' of this list with 879 career at-bats at that point. Holliday's breakout season occurred in 2006 and he continued improving in 2007, but the breakout really started the second half of the 2005 season - here's the breakdown:

2005 Pre All-Star --- .291 BA --- 4 HR -- 23 RBI -- .782 OPS
2005 Post All-Star -- .318 BA -- 15 HR -- 64 RBI -- .925 OPS
2006 Season --------- .326 BA - 34 HR - 114 RBI -- .973 OPS
2007 Season --------- .340 BA - 36 HR - 137 RBI - 1.012 OPS

Obtaining Holliday prior to the 2006 season was really the right time to buy - and that's the real purpose of this analysis: to identify who to buy now to maximize return on your investment.

The Tier 1 group consists of 21 hitters who have amassed more than 1,200 at-bats so far in their young career. First the list:

1. Carl Crawford ------- 3,343 career at-bats
2. Miguel Cabrera ----- 2,694
3. Jose Reyes ----------- 2,518
4. Grady Sizemore ----- 2,061
5. David Wright -------- 2,024
6. Jhonny Peralta ------ 1,914
7. Rocco Baldelli ------- 1,656
8. Robinson Cano ------ 1,621
9. Jeff Francoeur ------- 1,550
10. Joe Mauer ------------ 1,523
11. Aaron Hill ------------ 1,515
12. Willy Taveras -------- 1,494
13. Adrian Gonzalez ---- 1,408
14. Wily Mo Pena -------- 1,395
15. Mark Teahen --------- 1,384
16. Ryan Zimmerman --- 1,325
17. Yuniesky Betancourt - 1,305
18. Jorge Cantu ----------- 1,299
19. Yadier Molina -------- 1,290
20. Hanley Ramirez ------ 1,274
21. Prince Fielder -------- 1,201

The discussion will follow in the next post.....