The 200 Inning Club - Who's In, Who's Out?

The 200 inning club, a one-year membership isn't terribly exclusive - just look at the membership numbers over the past five seasons:

2007: 38
2006: 42
2005: 50
2004: 39
2003: 42

The tougher part is staying in the club year in and year out.

Staying in the 200 inning club for three straight seasons or more is somewhat of a benchmark of durability. For the 2007 season, of the 38 pitchers who threw 200+ innings, just 16 of them were doing it for at least the third straight season - how many can you name? The answer will appear at the end of the post!

I'll give you a little help. There were four pitchers who were in the 3+ straight 200 innings club in 2006 who fell out of the club in 2007:

• Barry Zito (coming off six straight 200+ inning seasons)
• Freddy Garcia (6)
• Derek Lowe (4)
• Jake Westbrook (3)

Here's a bit more help - three pitchers were not in the club in 2005, but were in 2006 and 2007. All three of these guys are good bets to rejoin the 3+ straight 200 innings club after the 2008 season:

• Roy Halladay
• Tim Hudson
• Josh Beckett

OK, there are seven names you know aren't part of the answer. I'm going to give you a few names that are on the list. These are the guys most likely to end their run of 200+ inning seasons - ranked in the order of likelihood they won't reach 200 innings:

1. Livan Hernandez (coming off eight straight 200+ inning seasons) - Hernandez is still a Free Agent with pitchers and catchers reporting this week. Two questions: Is he putting in the work to stay in at least his version of 'being in shape'? How long into spring training will Livan go unsigned? The longer he remains unsigned, the more likely it is he won't start the season in a starting rotation.
   
   
2. Mark Buehrle (7) - Buehrle has been incredibly resilient, but with the big four year deal he signed this past July it's unlikely he'll be pitching through any minor injuries as surely the White Sox will want to protect their investment.
   
   
3. Andy Pettitte (3) - Pettitte will turn 36 during the 2008 season and one has to wonder if his preparation and mental toughness will be up to par given the distractions he's dealing with, plus the loss of his workout partner.
   
   
4. Jon Garland (4) - Lingering shoulder issue from 2007 could flare up again causing him to be shutdown for at least a few starts at some point during the season.
   
   
5. Bronson Arroyo (3) - See the Feb 8th post regarding Dusty Baker's potential impact on Arroyo. If Baker rides him hard early in the season, it's not hard to see him also needing at least a brief shutdown during the latter half of the season.
   
   
6. Dontrelle Willis (3) - Willis was pretty awful in 2007. It's hard to imagine that there isn't some health issue rumbling under the surface. Combine that possibility with the fact that his intense delivery style is likely to become even moreso now that he's playing for a real contender and Willis is a decent bet to miss some starts at some point in 2008.
   
   
7. Carlos Zambrano (5) - Zambrano is just too stubborn for his own good when it comes to gutting it out. Pitching through minor ailments can't last forever before it leads to an inevitable breakdown. Combine that with the new contract and the Cubs desire to protect that investment and Zambrano could be facing some downtime in 2008.
   
   
8. Roy Oswalt (4) - Oswalt suffered a minor oblique strain in 2007 which only minimally impacted his workload. Oblique strains have a high recurrence pattern. If he doesn't reach 200 innings in 2008, my money is on the oblique recurring as the cause.

There you have it - that's all the help you're going to get. Of the 16 pitchers in the 3+ straight 200 innings club, I've just given you half the list - the half most likely to fall off the list in 2008.

That leaves the other eight - those most likely to continue building on their string of 200 inning seasons. Here they are - the rest of the answer to the trivia question:

• Brandon Webb (coming off four straight 200+ inning seasons)
• Johan Santana (4)
• Aaron Harang (3)
• John Lackey (3)
• Jake Peavy (3)
• Dan Haren (3)
• Javier Vazquez (3)
• John Smoltz (3)

Erik Bedard and the Safeco park effect

You already know Erik Bedard. You know he's got nasty stuff, a growing strikeout rate, declining WHIP, and a wickedly low opponent's batting average (BAA). In fact, Bedard was fourth in the majors in BAA at .212 - better than Johan Santana, Brandon Webb and Carlos Zambrano, to name a few.

Bedard now leaves Camden Yard and the AL East for the great Northwest and Safeco Field. With this move a few questions immediately come to mind for the savvy roto owner:

• What impact will pitching at Safeco as a home park have as compared to Camden Yard?
• Won't leaving the AL East and not having to face the Yankees and Red Sox on a regular basis give Bedard's numbers a boost?

Let's address the latter first - with the standard 'small sample size' disclaimer attached for the AL West opponent analysis.

In 2006 and 2007, Bedard made 27 starts against AL East opponents:

• Tampa Bay - 10 starts
• Toronto - 6 starts
• Boston - 6 starts
• NY Yankees - 5 starts

Over that same period, Bedard only had 12 starts against AL West teams, excluding Seattle - which is good news since in his two starts in 2007 against the Mariners, Bedard was hit hard with an 8.71 ERA and 1.74 WHIP.

Bedard's result splits looked like this:

• vs AL East --- 3.31 ERA - 1.23 WHIP
• vs AL West -- 3.18 ERA - 1.10 WHIP

Based on these splits, plus the variability due to the AL West smaller sample size, it's fair to conclude that Bedard should not see a major impact on his overall numbers due to the switch in divisions.

Now on to the park effect analysis.

Camden Yard was the sixth highest offensive ballpark with a 1.109 park effect. Safeco Field was 19th with a 0.948 park effect. Using the park effect factor for a straight translation, Bedard's overall ERA for 2007 would have dropped from 3.17 to 3.02. Clearly the park effect factor should translate into a slight improvement for Bedard in 2008.

One last note on Bedard. In the event you aren't able to land him in your draft, keep the following information in mind - you may be able to use this to pry him away from an owner around mid-season and still reap some valuable upside:

2006 Pre All-Star ----- 4.28 ERA - 1.36 WHIP - 7.24 K/9
2006 Post All-Star ---- 3.10 ERA - 1.33 WHIP - 8.59 K/9

2007 Pre All-Star ----- 3.40 ERA - 1.12 WHIP - 11.02 K/9
2007 Post All-Star ---- 2.69 ERA - 1.01 WHIP - 10.74 K/9

Dusty Baker will be the roto death of Bronson Arroyo

When roto owners hear the name Dusty Baker two words quickly come to mind: Pitcher Abuse.

Dusty has a well-documented history of being a non-believer in managing pitch counts - much to the chagrin of former Mark Prior and Kerry Wood owners. Admittedly, there are a few 'freaks' who seem immune to the effects of excessive pitch counts: Carlos Zambrano and Livan Hernandez immediately come to mind. However, for merely mortal starting pitchers the science behind monitoring pitch counts is simply too powerful to ignore.

Bronson Arroyo's breakout 2006 season, and the high workload increase that came with it, caused the roto expert community to almost unanimously issue a 2007 breakdown warning. Arroyo went from 205.3 IP in 2005, to 240.7 IP in 2006 - a 17% increase.

The start of Arroyo's 2007 season seemed to validate the roto experts' views.

2006 Season --------- 3.29 ERA - 1.19 WHIP - .243 BAA - 6.88 K/9
2007 Pre All-Star --- 4.84 ERA - 1.48 WHIP - .288 BAA - 6.05 K/9

But Arroyo did have a decent bounce-back after the All-Star Break:

2007 Post All-Star -- 3.55 ERA - 1.31 WHIP - .271 BAA - 7.36 K/9

First, the good news. This bounce-back shows that Arroyo was able to work through his problems and get back to a higher level of performance, including a spike in his K/9 rate. Arroyo owners should expect an overall better performance for 2008. All things being equal, it would be fair to expect numbers in the range of his 2007 Post All-Star numbers.

That's where the bad news comes into play. All things aren't going to be equal: namely, the Cincinnati Reds' new manager Dusty Baker. A more detailed look into Arroyo's 2007 splits shows a recipe for disaster:

Innings 7-9 ------ .363 BAA
Pitches 91-105 -- .301 BAA
Pitches 106+ ---- .469 BAA

Given Baker's track record of pushing his starters deep into games and ignoring pitch counts, this does not bode well for Arroyo and his owners for 2008.

A couple of Arroyo's 2007 outings could serve as a horrible harbinger of his 2008 season:

4/4/2007
Arroyo entered the 8th inning having thrown 99 pitches. He promptly allowed back-to-back singles to Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez and was pulled from the game after 108 pitches. The Reds' bullpen came in and promptly allowed both Lee and Ramirez to score.

6/6/2007
Arroyo entered the 7th inning having thrown 103 pitches. He faced the next five batters with the following results: Fly Out, Home Run, Single, Strike Out, Home Run (A.Pujols). He then left the game having thrown 119 pitches.

If Arroyo leaves the game in the two above scenarios prior to the start of his final inning appearance, his 2007 Pre All-Star ERA would be lowered from 4.84 to 4.46.

If just two cases of borderline poor pitching management can cause such a negative impact, it doesn't take a vivid imagination to predict the devastating impact to Arroyo in the event that Baker continues his past pitching management approach.