2008 NL Cy Young Award Predictions and Odds

First a look back - on April 2nd, I made the following predictions for the 2008 NL Cy Young Award:

Lock
Johan Santana

Runner-up
Jake Peavy

Darkhorse
John Maine

"Wouldn't it be cool if" pick
Roy Oswalt

"Cats and dogs living together" pick
Barry Zito


Johan Santana - I know - I really went out on a limb with this pick. Here's the breakdown on Santana at this point in the season:

---Stat--- Current NL Rank
2.85 ERA ------ 5th
1.16 WHIP ----- 7th
.235 BAA ------ 8th
135 Ks --------- 7th

Two more interesting items:

• In Santana's eight no-decisions, he has a 2.60 ERA / 1.077 WHIP
• In May, Santana posted a 3.74 ERA / 1.54 WHIP. If you remove May from his numbers his season stats would drop to a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP

The biggest thing hurting Santana right now in the race for the NL Cy Young Award is the Mets bullpen. Santana has a 9-7 record, but given how well he's pitching in his no-decision games he could easily be 13-7 or even 15-7.

Jake Peavy probably isn't going to get much consideration with an 8-7 record, due mainly to the horrible Padres offense, plus the five starts he missed in May/June due to his DL stint. Peavy does lead the NL with a 2.59 ERA, and he's fourth in WHIP at 1.12 and fourth in BAA at .230. He'll likely finish somewhere in the 5-7 spot when the voting wraps.

John Maine is fourth in the NL with a .234 BAA, but he's not in the Top 10 anywhere else. Darkhorse was a good category for Maine, hopefully he'll bounce back when he comes off the DL soon.

Roy Oswalt has been pretty average all season posting a 4.56 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and a 9-8 record. He seems like a really good guy and has been on a bit of a decline, thus the "Wouldn't it be cool if" pick.

The Barry Zito decline continues. A 5.74 ERA and 1.74 WHIP are killers, and he just keeps showing enough flashes of brilliance to complete confuse, befuddle and burn desperate owners.

Current odds on winning the 2008 NL Cy Young Award:
5:2 - Dan Haren
3:1 - Brandon Webb
6:1 - Tim Lincecum
7:1 - Johan Santana
7:1 - Edinson Volquez
10:1 - Jake Peavy
12:1 - Chad Billingsley
15:1 - Carlos Zambrano
15:1 - Cole Hamels
17:1 - Ryan Dempster
20:1 - Ben Sheets
24:1 - CC Sabathia
30:1 - Kyle Lohse
40:1 - Aaron Cook

2008 AL Cy Young Award Predictions

On April 2nd, I made the following predictions for the 2008 AL Cy Young Award:

Lock
CC Sabathia (although back then it was C.C. Sabathia)

Runner-up
Erik Bedard

Darkhorse
Jered Weaver / Daisuke Matsuzaka

"Wouldn't it be cool if" pick
Francisco Liriano

"Cats and dogs living together" pick
Clay Buchholz


CC Sabathia started off the season with a major THUD - after four starts his ERA was 13.50 and his WHIP was 2.56 - that's no typo: TWO point FIVE SIX. From that point on he posted a 2.16 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with Cleveland, and through his first 48 innings with Milwaukee he has a NL ERA of 1.88 and WHIP of 0.96. Overall, without the first four starts his season ERA would stand at 2.07 with a WHIP of 0.99. From April 22nd on, Sabathia has been the best pitcher in baseball. It's too bad he's not going to get real Cy Young consideration after switching leagues.

Erik Bedard - PASS

Erik Bedard - ok, I guess I'm not allowed to pass (I had to look it up in the RotoAdvantage Blog Constitution). One of the big reasons I liked Bedard heading into the season was the Safeco Park Effect (see original post). And I was correct on that count. For the season, in eight home starts Bedard has a 2.25 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .222 BAA. The problem has come in Bedard's seven road starts where he has a 5.73 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .244 BAA. It's a big "what might have been" season for Bedard who is currently on the DL with shoulder stiffness. Don't be afraid to draft him a bit early next season.

Jered Weaver has had the same problem as Bedard - road starts. In 10 home starts, Weaver has posted a 3.69 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .241 BAA. In 12 road starts he has a 4.98 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .275 BAA. Is Jered really just a younger Jeff Weaver? It's starting to look like maybe that's the case.

Daisuke Matsuzaka really has delivered in 2008. At this point he has to at least be in the conversation when talking AL Cy Young. One interesting stat for Matsuzaka - he has almost exactly double the walk rate against lefties than he does against righties. His WHIP vs. lefties is 1.66 and his WHIP vs. righties is 1.07. His home WHIP is 1.51 and his road WHIP is 1.16. If Boston can get him matched up against primarily right-handed batters in away games for the playoffs he'll be unstoppable!

Francisco Liriano has burned up most of his starts in the minors this season. He's back for good now it would appear, but it's too late for this "Wouldn't it be cool if" pick to pan out. Next year however...

Clay Buchholz went two full months between starts with Boston due to a DL stint for a torn fingernail, followed immediately by a demotion to Pawtucket to work on his consistency. He hasn't been a whole lot better since returning to the Boston rotation. Since his return he's been far too hittable with a .306 BAA.


Here are my current odds for winning the 2008 AL Cy Young Award:

3:1 - Roy Halladay
5:1 - Cliff Lee
6:1 - Joe Saunders
9:1 - Ervin Santana
10:1 - Daisuke Matsuzaka
12:1 - Jamie Shields
15:1 - Justin Duchscherer
20:1 - Mike Mussina

Looking Back: NL MVP Predictions

Again, back on April 1st, I made the following predictions for the 2008 NL MVP Award:

Lock
David Wright

Runner-up
Ryan Braun

Darkhorse
Mark Teixeira

"Wouldn't it be cool if" pick
Albert Pujols

"Cats and dogs living together" pick
J.J. Hardy


David Wright has been great, but not spectacularly great. Still, if he gets hot down the stretch and leads the Mets to the NL East title he's going to win the award.

Ryan Braun is very much in the conversation - he has really turned it on over the past month or more. Still, no playoffs for the Brewers would mean no real MVP consideration for Braun.

Mark Teixeira definitely was a darkhorse. He underproduced his way to Anaheim so he's WAY out of the picture.

Albert Pujols was predicted by most to not be a true MVP candidate at the start of the season due to his elbow injury, the seemingly weak Cardinals team, and the chance that he could be shut down by August if the Cards were out of the playoff hunt. None of those are factors at this point as the Cards are definitely in the playoff hunt and Pujols has been a steady producer.

J.J. Hardy - again, day is not night and night is not day so all is right with the world.

Here are my current odds for winning the 2008 NL MVP Award:

3:1 - Hanley Ramirez
4:1 - David Wright
6:1 - Albert Pujols
9:1 - Ryan Braun
15:1 - Lance Berkman
15:1 - Jose Reyes
25:1 - Matt Holliday
25:1 - Chase Utley

Looking Back: AL MVP Predictions

On April 1st, I made the following predictions for 2008 AL MVP:

Lock: Alex Rodriguez
Runner-up: Miguel Cabrera
Darkhorse: Carlos Guillen
"Wouldn't it be cool if" pick: Vladimir Guerrero
"Cats and dogs living together" pick: Melky Cabrera

Alex Rodriguez has been consistently great, although not 'super-spectacular'. The only AL offensive players outproducing him at this point are Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton and Grady Sizemore. None of those three are going to get serious consideration for AL MVP because of where their teams are in the standings. If the Yankees miss the post-season, A-Rod won't win MVP either.

Miguel Cabrera has really been coming on over the past month or so. He's going to have to carry the Tigers on his back for a stretch with some uber-amazing numbers to get serious consideration - that team is just too good overall, he's not really standing out at this point.

Carlos Guillen - forget about it. He seemed poised for another big step forward heading into 2008, but it looks like he is what he already was in 2007, not something more.

Vladimir Guerrero - he was the "Wouldn't it be cool if" pick because he's been in a modest decline the past couple of seasons. It would have been great to see him bounce back into Top 5 in the game status, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen now or ever again.

Melky Cabrera - well, cats and dogs are NOT living together, at least not in the sense Dr. Venkman meant. So we were right on with that pick!

Here's the current odds on the 2008 AL MVP race:
2:1 - Alex Rodriguez
4:1 - Kevin Youkilis
7:1 - Carlos Quentin
10:1 - Justin Morneau
20:1 - Josh Hamilton

Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball MVPs

Just over halfway through the season and at this point we've seen major surprises, huge busts, and season-ending injuries - but one thing is for certain: if you have a roster comprised of at least a handful of the following candidates for Fantasy Baseball MVP, you're undoubtedly looking down at most of the other teams in your league's standings!

C: Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto
1B: Lance Berkman, Ryan Howard
2B: Ian Kinsler, Chase Utley
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes
3B: Chipper Jones, Alex Rodriguez, David Wright
OF: Josh Hamilton, Grady Sizemore, Ichiro Suzuki
SP: Justin Duchscherer, Roy Hallady, Dan Haren, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Edinson Volquez
RP: Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez

So from among the above list of candidates, who are the mid-season MVPs? Check out Knox Bardeen's picks at CrookedPitch.com.

2008 Mid Season Fantasy Baseball MVP Awards [Crooked Pitch]