Buy-Sell: August 15th Edition

Looking for who you might be able to either add or remove from your roster to improve your team down the stretch? Here are a few ideas:

BUY

• Marlon Byrd, OF, TEX
• Melvin Mora, 3B, BAL
• Joey Devine, RP, OAK
• Jensen Lewis, RP, CLE
• Jeff Kent, 2B, LAD

SELL

• Jed Lowrie, IF, BOS
• Jorge Campillo, SP, ATL
• Paul Byrd, SP, BOS
• Daniel Cabrera, SP, BAL

For the entire list and commentary, check out Grey's latest post on Razzball. (I know, two posts in a row pumping Razzball - what can I say, it's the best post I've come across today!)

Meathook Jr. [Razzball]

Trading Good Luck for Bad

Why on earth would you want to trade good luck for bad luck?! If you believe that luck all evens out in the end - that's why. It's always worth taking a look at which players are the beneficiaries of above average luck, and consider moving them for players in the opposite position. If you do, and the luck does even out, you've just come out way ahead.

Here are some hitters and pitchers to consider moving now while their run of luck is still going good:

LUCKY

• Howie Kendrick
• Fred Lewis
• Xavier Nady
• Adam Jones
• Joakim Soria
• Justin Duchscherer
• Scott Olsen
• Ryan Dempster

And a few players on a bad streak who's luck may be about to turn:

UNLUCKY

• Kenji Johjima
• Paul Konerko
• Austin Kearns
• Mark Ellis
• Bronson Arroyo
• Nate Robertson
• Randy Johnson
• Carlos Silva

For the complete lists, check out Al Melchoir's most recent By The Numbers post on CBS Sportsline.

By the Numbers: Unusual suspects in Detroit [CBS Sportsline]

2nd Half Schedule Strength and Player Trends

Which teams face the toughest schedule over the rest of the season? How about:

• Yankees (could have guessed that one with all the games left against the Red Sox and Rays)
• Orioles (ditto)
• Blue Jays (double ditto)
• Mariners
• Royals

And who has the weakest remaining schedule? It's the Minnesota Twins.

It's a bit of an oversimplification, but if you wanted to use strength of schedule as a trade planning tool you'd probably want to target deals with the following players involved:

Buy Targets

• Justin Morneau
• Joe Mauer
• Carlos Gomez
• Delmon Young
• Scott Baker
• Nick Blackburn
• Kevin Slowey

Sell Targets

• Nick Markakis
• Aubrey Huff
• Alex Rios
• Derek Jeter
• Adam Jones
• Mike Mussina
• Andy Pettitte
• Jeremy Guthrie

And, do you know which players drop off / pick up most after the All-Star break?

Here are a few nuggets:

Largest batting average increase: Adam LaRoche
Largest batting average decrease: Eric Byrnes (but that doesn't really help now does it?) - next is Johnny Estrada (nope, no help there either) - next is Hank Blalock (there, that might be useful!)

Largest ERA decrease: Salomon Torres
Largest ERA increase: Chris Young (next is Nate Robertson)

Get the full analysis from the 'Elias Says...' blog available on ESPN.com.

Elias Says... [ESPN]

2nd Half Sell High Candidates

A flip side view of the buy low / sell high coin has also been posted by Aaron Gleeman at RotoWorld.com. The highlights of his second half sell high list include:

• Justin Duchscherer
• Brian Fuentes
• Daisuke Matsuzaka
• Xavier Nady
• Scott Olsen
• Joe Saunders
• and more...

Check out Aaron's full analysis in his Baseball Daily Dose article.

Sell High for the Second Half [Rotoworld]

2nd Half Buy Low Candidates

An integral ingredient in building a winning team involves making at least one good move to acquire a player who is about to really take off to provide your team a boost. One of my all-time favorite personal buy-low deals was back in early May 2002 when I dealt Matt Herges (then the de facto Expos closer) and Scott Williamson (apparently on the cusp of reclaiming the closer job for the Reds) in exchange for Jason Schmidt who had just left a start after two-thirds of an inning with a stiff shoulder. Herges ended up with six saves on the season, Williamson with eight saves, and Schmidt went on to win 13 games with 196 strikeouts, 3.45 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in what became his breakout season. I love that story. But enough about me! This is about you!

Aaron Gleeman at RotoWorld.com has done the work for you! The highlights of his second half buy low list include:

• Jonathan Broxton (too late now perhaps?)
• Robinson Cano
• Manny Corpas
• Brad Hawpe
• Alexis Rios
• Nick Swisher
• and several more

Check out Aaron's full analysis in his Baseball Daily Dose article.

Buy Low for the Second Half [Rotoworld]

Shortstops: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Quick recap of the concept for this series: The 'Sell' players are basically going in higher rounds or for more auction money than they truly warrant based on what they'll likely produce for 2008. The 'Buy' players are just the opposite, going in lower rounds or for less money than what they'll likely produce for 2008.


Shortstops to SELL:

• Derek Jeter
  
  You can certainly count on Jeter to hit over .300 and score over 100 runs, but he's in a steady decline in the power department. His home run totals over the past four seasons have dropped from 23 to 19 to 14 to 12 and in 2007 he posted a near-career low in stolen base percentage getting caught eight times in 23 attempts - the 15 steals were the second lowest total he's posted in a season with 600+ at-bats. Also, factor in the fact that Jeter has topped 78 RBI just three times in his career and you can pretty safely predict a .320 average, 12-14 homers, 70+ RBI, 100+ runs and 12-14 steals. Good numbers for a shortstop, but not worthy of where he's being drafted or the auction money he's getting.


• Miguel Tejada
  
  Similar to Jeter, Tejada is definitely a very good shortstop - he's just not the elite shortstop he was in 2004 and earlier. In 2004, Tejada's first year in Baltimore, he hit .311 with 34 home runs, 150 RBI, 107 runs scored and four steals. In the three years since, he has averaged .311 with 23 home runs, 93 RBI, 87 runs scored and four steals. Don't pay for the 2004 Tejada. Know what you're getting - a shortstop who will give you a .310 average, 25 homers, 95 RBI, 85 runs scored and a handful of steals. And don't overthink the 'Juice Box' factor - Tejada is actually hurt by his change in home ballparks (see previous post: The 15 players hurt most by their new 2008 home ballpark)

Shortstops to BUY:

• Stephen Drew
  
  Drew suffered through a sub-par sophomore campaign, his first full season in the bigs. However, he did show significant improvement in his home run rate in the 2nd half of 2007 - hitting eight homers in just 237 at-bats (compared to four homers in 306 1st half at-bats). Look for Drew to make giant leaps forward in 2008 to the tune of a .290+ batting average, 20+ homers, 75 RBI, 75 runs scored and 10+ steals.


• J.J. Hardy
  
  Hardy put up a first half batting line of .280 / .495 / .833 in 2007 along with 18 home runs. While he's unlikely to duplicate that amazing first half, especially in the home run department, I don't think he's going to drop off too much from that level. Look for a .280+ average, 27-30 homers, 90 RBI, 90 runs scored, and a couple of steals in 2008. He's basically Miguel Tejada with a lower batting average.
  

Other posts in the spring training buy/sell recommendations series:

Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations

1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

3rd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Quick recap of the concept for this series: The 'Sell' players are basically going in higher rounds or for more auction money than they truly warrant based on what they'll likely produce for 2008. The 'Buy' players are just the opposite, going in lower rounds or for less money than what they'll likely produce for 2008.


2nd Basemen to SELL:

• Jeff Kent
  
  This recommendation is more a combination of common sense, plus hunch as the data certainly does not back it up. Kent actually had a nice resurgence the 2nd half of 2007, mainly due to an absolutely scorching July where Kent's batting line was an amazing .447 / .737 / 1.237. He turns 40 this month and he hasn't topped 500 at-bats the past two seasons. It's hard to see him topping that mark ever again, and while he should still deliver above-average value when he is in the lineup - it's better to let another owner deal with that uncertainty.
  


• Dustin Pedroia
  
  I'm not a big believer in the sophomore jinx, but AL ROY Pedroia is still going too high for a second baseman who will be lucky to crack into the double-digit range in home runs and stolen bases. Leverage the AL ROY and Red Sox Nation hype to sell high on Pedroia - you'll be better off with any of the BUY candidates listed below.

2nd Basemen to BUY:

• Kelly Johnson
  
  Johnson was a bit inconsistent in his first full season in the bigs and seemed to wear down in August and September. This is understandable since he missed almost the entire 2006 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Johnson's best month was July when he put up a batting line of .356 / .658 / 1.085. Expect around a .290 average, 20 homers, 90 runs, 70 RBI and 15 steals for 2008.
  


• Aaron Hill
  
  Hill showed very solid improvement over the 2nd half of 2007 putting up a batting line of .320 / .488 / .831 - he's basically Dustin Pedroia within the Red Sox hype and unfortunately without the supporting cast. He's not going to match Pedroia's runs scored or RBI, but he'll be right with him in all the other categories, and for much cheaper.
  

Other posts in the spring training buy/sell recommendations series:

Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations

1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Shortstops: Buy/Sell Recommendations

3rd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Quick recap of the concept for this series: The 'Sell' players are basically going in higher rounds or for more auction money than they truly warrant based on what they'll likely produce for 2008. The 'Buy' players are just the opposite, going in lower rounds or for less money than what they'll likely produce for 2008.

1st Basemen to SELL:

• Carlos Delgado
  
  Delgado put up the worst full season numbers of his entire career in 2007. His .258 average, 24 home runs, and 87 RBI were all career lows. While he did have a bit of a 2nd half bounce back in 2007, batting .285 - the signs of decline are undeniable. It is out of the realm of likelihood to expect a bounceback to his 2006 numbers of .265-38-114. I wouldn't expect too much of a dropoff from his 2007 line though - but that doesn't warrant his current draft position or auction salary going rate.
  


• There really aren't any other strong SELL candidates in the 1st Basement player pool. It's a deep position and for the most part the players are being drafted as they should be, with the exception of a couple of BUY candidates.

1st Basemen to BUY:

• Conor Jackson
  
  Jackson's 2007 trend line was covered in the previous post Under 27 Up-and-Coming Hitters - Pt. 3 - with Tony Clark out of the picture and the full-time job handed over to him, 2008 is Jackson's year to shine. He will easily outproduce Carlos Delgado in 2008 and beyond - and for a much lower draft position or auction salary than the current 2008 draft trend.



• Nick Johnson
  
  Johnson is a bit of a forgotten man in many roto circles after missing the entire 2007 season recovering from a broken right femur suffered in a horrible collision with teammate Austin Kearns the last week of the 2006 season. While he is very injury-prone and a notoriously slow healer, it is worthy to note that virtually none of his injuries are of a chronic nature. They have all been acute traumas: the 2006 broken leg, a 2005 deep bone bruise to his heel that cost him a month of the season, a 2004 broken cheekbone that cost him the final seven weeks of the season and a lumbar strain that cost him the first seven weeks. In 2006, Johnson played in 147 games, the most in a single season in his career, and he hit .290-23-78 with 100 runs scored in a horrible offensive home park. If Johnson is showing that his swing is back in spring training, he could be a major bargain in NL-only league especially.

Other posts in the spring training buy/sell recommendations series:

Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations

2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Shortstops: Buy/Sell Recommendations

3rd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations

So you just finished your draft and you don't quite feel 100% stoked about your team. You are not in the minority my friend. Just look at the ESPN, Yahoo and other fantasy baseball forums. They are completely overloaded with "How's my team?" and "What should I do to improve my team?" posts. Whether you have already drafted, or you are preparing to lock in your 2008 keeper list - the following series of posts will give you a good place to start in making some of those 'tweaking your team' trades.

The basic premise behind this series is this: position a player on the 'Sell' list as more of a primary piece of a trade offer while seeking an upgrade at another position and try to get a player on the 'Buy' list as a filler/throw-in on the deal. You're not going to lose nearly as much as you might think in swapping those two players, plus you're going to upgrade elsewhere at the same time - that is how you win leagues!

One last piece of information. The 'Sell' players are basically going in higher rounds or for more auction money than they truly warrant based on what they'll likely produce for 2008. The 'Buy' players are just the opposite, going in lower rounds or for less money than what they'll likely produce for 2008.

Now - on to the recommendations...

CATCHERS TO SELL:

• Ivan Rodriguez
  
  Pudge enters 2008 at 36 years of age - old by starting catcher standards. He's been incredibly durable over the past few seasons, but the signs of decline are starting to show. Last season Pudge managed to hit a respectable .271 after the break, but with only 3 home runs and 17 RBI - compared to his first half line of .288-8-46.
  


• Jason Varitek
  
  Varitek is only five months younger than Pudge - he'll turn 36 in April. His 2nd half decline was rather dramatic as well. Before the break, Varitek hit .279 with a K-Rate of .242. After the break, he only hit .225 and more alarmingly saw his K-Rate jump up to a Wily Mo Pena-like .330.
  


• Jarrod Saltalamacchia
  
  This sell recommendation comes with a few caveats. First, if you're in a keeper league you want to make certain your team is truly a contender before you consider moving Salty and second, you need to make sure you get maximum value for his 'future production'. That being said, if you're playing for this year - Saltalamacchia is not likely to deliver the value to validate where he's being drafted and the type of auction money he's going for.

CATCHERS TO BUY:

• Dioner Navarro
  
  Navarro's strong 2nd half was detailed in the previous post Breakout Hitters - Pt. 3 the main highlight being his power surge, going from only one 1st half home run and hitting a weak .177 to eight homers in the 2nd half with a .285 batting average.
  


• Chris Snyder
  
  Snyder hit a respectable .252 with 13 homers and 47 RBI in 2007. His batting average dropped off in the 2nd half, but his other peripherals stayed pretty much level indicating bad luck was responsible for some portion of the decline. Snyder just turned 27, the magical breakout age for hitters with more than a full big league season under their belt - and Snyder's 932 career at-bats bode well for him developing further in 2008. Don't let the presence of Miguel Montero scare you off. Word out of the D-Backs camp is that Snyder is again going to get more playing time than Montero in 2008.
  


• Ryan Doumit
  
  Doumit will turn 27 the first week of the season and with his 632 career at-bats, he also possesses that magical breakout combination of age and experience. The word out of Pirates camp is that Doumit is looking good and they really want to give him significant playing time behind the plate in 2008. This could finally be the year he puts it all together.

And there you have it - I'd love to hear your thoughts/reactions either by posting a comment below - or feel free to try my new 'GrandCentral' service in the right margin. GrandCentral will call your phone number and connect you to me (or my voicemail) for free!

Other posts in the spring training buy/sell recommendations series:

1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Shortstops: Buy/Sell Recommendations

3rd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations