1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Quick recap of the concept for this series: The 'Sell' players are basically going in higher rounds or for more auction money than they truly warrant based on what they'll likely produce for 2008. The 'Buy' players are just the opposite, going in lower rounds or for less money than what they'll likely produce for 2008.

1st Basemen to SELL:

• Carlos Delgado
  
  Delgado put up the worst full season numbers of his entire career in 2007. His .258 average, 24 home runs, and 87 RBI were all career lows. While he did have a bit of a 2nd half bounce back in 2007, batting .285 - the signs of decline are undeniable. It is out of the realm of likelihood to expect a bounceback to his 2006 numbers of .265-38-114. I wouldn't expect too much of a dropoff from his 2007 line though - but that doesn't warrant his current draft position or auction salary going rate.
  


• There really aren't any other strong SELL candidates in the 1st Basement player pool. It's a deep position and for the most part the players are being drafted as they should be, with the exception of a couple of BUY candidates.

1st Basemen to BUY:

• Conor Jackson
  
  Jackson's 2007 trend line was covered in the previous post Under 27 Up-and-Coming Hitters - Pt. 3 - with Tony Clark out of the picture and the full-time job handed over to him, 2008 is Jackson's year to shine. He will easily outproduce Carlos Delgado in 2008 and beyond - and for a much lower draft position or auction salary than the current 2008 draft trend.



• Nick Johnson
  
  Johnson is a bit of a forgotten man in many roto circles after missing the entire 2007 season recovering from a broken right femur suffered in a horrible collision with teammate Austin Kearns the last week of the 2006 season. While he is very injury-prone and a notoriously slow healer, it is worthy to note that virtually none of his injuries are of a chronic nature. They have all been acute traumas: the 2006 broken leg, a 2005 deep bone bruise to his heel that cost him a month of the season, a 2004 broken cheekbone that cost him the final seven weeks of the season and a lumbar strain that cost him the first seven weeks. In 2006, Johnson played in 147 games, the most in a single season in his career, and he hit .290-23-78 with 100 runs scored in a horrible offensive home park. If Johnson is showing that his swing is back in spring training, he could be a major bargain in NL-only league especially.

Other posts in the spring training buy/sell recommendations series:

Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations

2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Shortstops: Buy/Sell Recommendations

3rd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

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Catchers: Buy/Sell Recommendations

So you just finished your draft and you don't quite feel 100% stoked about your team. You are not in the minority my friend. Just look at the ESPN, Yahoo and other fantasy baseball forums. They are completely overloaded with "How's my team?" and "What should I do to improve my team?" posts. Whether you have already drafted, or you are preparing to lock in your 2008 keeper list - the following series of posts will give you a good place to start in making some of those 'tweaking your team' trades.

The basic premise behind this series is this: position a player on the 'Sell' list as more of a primary piece of a trade offer while seeking an upgrade at another position and try to get a player on the 'Buy' list as a filler/throw-in on the deal. You're not going to lose nearly as much as you might think in swapping those two players, plus you're going to upgrade elsewhere at the same time - that is how you win leagues!

One last piece of information. The 'Sell' players are basically going in higher rounds or for more auction money than they truly warrant based on what they'll likely produce for 2008. The 'Buy' players are just the opposite, going in lower rounds or for less money than what they'll likely produce for 2008.

Now - on to the recommendations...

CATCHERS TO SELL:

• Ivan Rodriguez
  
  Pudge enters 2008 at 36 years of age - old by starting catcher standards. He's been incredibly durable over the past few seasons, but the signs of decline are starting to show. Last season Pudge managed to hit a respectable .271 after the break, but with only 3 home runs and 17 RBI - compared to his first half line of .288-8-46.
  


• Jason Varitek
  
  Varitek is only five months younger than Pudge - he'll turn 36 in April. His 2nd half decline was rather dramatic as well. Before the break, Varitek hit .279 with a K-Rate of .242. After the break, he only hit .225 and more alarmingly saw his K-Rate jump up to a Wily Mo Pena-like .330.
  


• Jarrod Saltalamacchia
  
  This sell recommendation comes with a few caveats. First, if you're in a keeper league you want to make certain your team is truly a contender before you consider moving Salty and second, you need to make sure you get maximum value for his 'future production'. That being said, if you're playing for this year - Saltalamacchia is not likely to deliver the value to validate where he's being drafted and the type of auction money he's going for.

CATCHERS TO BUY:

• Dioner Navarro
  
  Navarro's strong 2nd half was detailed in the previous post Breakout Hitters - Pt. 3 the main highlight being his power surge, going from only one 1st half home run and hitting a weak .177 to eight homers in the 2nd half with a .285 batting average.
  


• Chris Snyder
  
  Snyder hit a respectable .252 with 13 homers and 47 RBI in 2007. His batting average dropped off in the 2nd half, but his other peripherals stayed pretty much level indicating bad luck was responsible for some portion of the decline. Snyder just turned 27, the magical breakout age for hitters with more than a full big league season under their belt - and Snyder's 932 career at-bats bode well for him developing further in 2008. Don't let the presence of Miguel Montero scare you off. Word out of the D-Backs camp is that Snyder is again going to get more playing time than Montero in 2008.
  


• Ryan Doumit
  
  Doumit will turn 27 the first week of the season and with his 632 career at-bats, he also possesses that magical breakout combination of age and experience. The word out of Pirates camp is that Doumit is looking good and they really want to give him significant playing time behind the plate in 2008. This could finally be the year he puts it all together.

And there you have it - I'd love to hear your thoughts/reactions either by posting a comment below - or feel free to try my new 'GrandCentral' service in the right margin. GrandCentral will call your phone number and connect you to me (or my voicemail) for free!

Other posts in the spring training buy/sell recommendations series:

1st Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

2nd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

Shortstops: Buy/Sell Recommendations

3rd Basemen: Buy/Sell Recommendations

20 players mimimally impacted by their new 2008 home ballpark

Wrapping up the series on the impact of park factors for players switching teams in 2008 is the group of players who's new home ballpark is relatively neutral in comparison to last year's home ballpark. Here they are, ranked from slight positive impact to slight negative impact:

1. Pedro Feliz (.047 factor gap)
2. Brian Schneider (.042)
3. Ryan Church (.042)
4. Geoff Jenkins (.023)
5. Dontrelle Willis (.017)
6. David Eckstein (.011)
7. Scott Rolen (.011)
8. Tom Glavine (.004)
9. Orlando Cabrera (-0.001)
10. Jon Garland (-0.001)
11. Troy Glaus (-0.011)
12. Miguel Cabrera (-0.017)
13. Delmon Young (-0.026)
14. Matt Garza (-0.026)
15. Carlos Quentin (-0.027)
16. Brad Wilkerson (-0.031)
17. Eric Gagne (-0.032)
18. Miguel Olivo (-0.035)
19. Aaron Rowand (-0.047)
20. Johan Santana (-0.049)

Frankly, I was surprised to see that the gap between Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park and San Francisco's SBC Park wasn't larger - you see that gap reflected for both Aaron Rowand and Pedro Feliz who cross paths en route to their new teams.

The other surprise to me was for Johan Santana. My gut reaction was that pitching in Shea Stadium would be an even bigger boost for him, but not so. Of course the switch to the NL will more than make up for the park factor variance.

The 15 players hurt most by their new 2008 home ballpark

Part Two of answering the question "How will the switch in home ballparks impact players switching teams?" I've completed a somewhat simplistic analysis using the 2007 park factors and calculated the gap from old to new home park - here are the results, listed in ascending order (#1 is hurt the most) by the size of the gap in factors from the old home park to the new home park:

1. Tadahito Iguchi (-0.329 factor gap)
2. Cliff Floyd (-0.279)
3. Dan Haren (-0.278)
4. Miguel Tejada (-0.208)
5. Matt Albers (-0.208)
6. Jim Edmonds (-0.178)
7. Jon Lieber (-0.138)
8. Michael Bourn (-0.133)
9. Brad Lidge (-0.133)
10. Edinson Volquez (-0.116)
11. Josh Hamilton (-0.116)
12. Francisco Cordero (-0.084)
13. Carlos Silva (-0.081)
14. Jason Jennings (-0.078)
15. Salomon Torres (-0.066)

Only a few names on this list really standout as many of these players didn't put in a full season in the majors last year. Of note are:

• Dan Haren - the fact that he's switching from the AL to the NL should mitigate the negative impact of his park change.
• Miguel Tejada
• Brad Lidge
• Josh Hamilton

Next post - the players who should experience negligible impact from their home ballpark switch for 2008. A few on that list are surprising as you might have expected them to be on either the helped or hurt lists.

The 16 Players most helped by their new home park

One of the big questions heading into a new season is "How will the switch in home ballparks impact players switching teams?" I've completed a somewhat simplistic analysis using the 2007 park factors and calculated the gap from old to new home park - here are the results, listed in descending order by the size of the gap in factors from the old home park to the new home park:

1. Marcus Giles (.405 factor gap)
2. Randy Wolf (.298)
3. Mike Cameron (.256)
4. Nick Swisher (.251)
5. Livan Hernandez (.244)
6. Milton Bradley (.224)
7. Torii Hunter (.218)
8. Chris Burke (.210)
9. Jose Valverde (.210)
10. Luke Scott (.208)
11. Erik Bedard (.161)
12. Adam Jones (.161)
13. Andruw Jones (.141)
14. Edgar Renteria (.139)
15. Jose Guillen (.085)
16. Lastings Milledge (.084 - using a neutral park factor of 1.000 for Nationals Park)

The most intriguing players on this list for me are Nick Swisher, Torii Hunter, and Erik Bedard - they really will have a nice 'tailwind' pushing them in their new home ballparks in 2008!

Under 27 Up-and-Coming Hitters - Pt. 4

The 21 hitters listed in Tier 3 (between 400 and 800 career at-bats) can also be grouped into four categories:

• Strong Upward Trend
• Moderate Upward Trend
• Leveled Off
• Slight Decline

Again, the primary trends analyzed were as follows:

• Comparison of Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / OPS lines
• Comparison of Strikeout Rates (Strikeouts divided by At-Bats)
• In a couple of relevant instances, ABs per HR were also analyzed

Strong Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

1. Kevin Kouzmanoff (Age 26 - 540 career ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .228 / .384 / .674 -- .246 K Rate -- 33.1 ABs per HR
   2007 Post All-Star -- .317 / .524 / .890 -- .147 K Rate -- 22.9 ABs per HR
   
   Kouzmanoff got off to an absolutely horrid start in 2007, but bounced back nicely showing significant improvements in his K Rate and ABs per HR. Despite playing in a black hole of an offensive home park, I like Kouzmanoff to put up a 2008 hitting line closer to his 2007 2nd half line.
   
   
2. Jeremy Hermida (24 - 777 ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .231 / .422 / .744 and .295 K Rate
   2007 Post All-Star -- .340 / .555 / .956 and .211 K Rate
   
   Looks like Hermida rediscovered his sweet swing in the 2nd half of 2007. The spike in batting average to .340, plus the large drop in his K Rate indicates that Hermida is finally poised to fulfill the promise that has eluded him due to injuries the past two seasons.
   
   
3. Jason Kubel (26 - 698 ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .250 / .404 / .706 and 35.0 ABs per HR
   2007 Post All-Star -- .303 / .511 / .890 and 19.6 ABs per HR
   
   The large jump in ABs per HR for Kubel in the 2nd half bodes well for his continuing power development. Again, look for a 2008 line on par with his 2nd half 2007 numbers and perhaps even better in the power department.
   
   
4. Nate McLouth (26 - 708 ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .241 / .375 / .695 and 112 ABs per HR
   2007 Post All-Star -- .267 / .502 / .868 and 18.1 ABs per HR
   
   McLouth was always projected as more of a speedster, but he showed some surprising power in the 2nd half of 2007 by hitting 12 home runs in 217 at-bats. With full-time duty, McLouth could put up a 2008 line similar to his 2007 2nd half, but the HR frequency will drop off from that level.
   
   
5. Chris B. Young (24 - 639 ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .233 / .427 / .704 and 22.2 ABs per HR
   2007 Post All-Star -- .242 / .509 / .823 and 14.8 ABs per HR
   
   Young lived up to all but the very highest of expectations in 2007, including an AB per HR rate in Ryan Braun territory for the 2nd half. While Youngs K Rate remained level throughout the season, his Walk Rate nearly doubled as he walked 28 times in the 2nd half, compared with just 15 walks in the 1st half.
   

Moderate Upward Trend (ranked by strength of trend)

1. Howie Kendrick (Age 24 - 605 career ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .297 / .431 / .755 and .200 K Rate
   2007 Post All-Star -- .357 / .476 / .854 and .154 K Rate
   
   Kendrick finally started putting it all together in the 2nd half of 2007 - posting that stellar batting average that had me proclaiming that he would someday battle for a batting title back in my 2005 projection. Looks like I was three years too early, but it may yet come to pass.
   


2. Troy Tulowitzki (23 - 705 ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .286 / .432 / .790
   2007 Post All-Star -- .296 / .531 / .891
   
   Everybody knows the Tulo story - he got off to a good enough start, then just kept improving throughout the season. Tulowitzki should have been the NL Rookie of the Year - I didn't realize they changed the award parameters to ignore defense! Look for 2008 numbers in the neighborhood of his 2007 2nd half line - but add more SBs to the projection as he'll be batting in the #2 spot most of the year and the Rockies are said to be cranking up the running game a notch for 2008.
   


3. Alex Gordon (24 - 543 ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .232 / .358 / .679 and 48.8 ABs per HR
   2007 Post All-Star -- .264 / .472 / .777 and 27.8 ABs per HR
   
   Gordon showed solid progress in the power department in the 2nd half of 2007, improving his AB per HR rate from 48.8 to 27.8. He also picked up the pace a bit in the batting average department, but he's still well short of what most have projected him to be. Look for improvement in 2008, but not a true breakout season.
   


4. Ronny Cedeno (25 - 688 ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .097 / .323 / .444 (31 April ABs)
   2007 Post All-Star -- .279 / .442 / .753 ( 43 ABs)
   
   Not that Cedeno is going to win anybody a league title, but it is worth noting the way he bounced back after his horrid April. He may be one of those guys who can plug most any roster spot and not hurt you - although he's not going to help you a whole lot either, that is unless he gets catcher eligibility by some chance.
   

Leveled Off

1. James Loney (Age 24 - 446 career ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .385 / .603 / 1.045 and 26.0 ABs per HR
   2007 Post All-Star -- .316 / .519 / .882 and 22.2 ABs per HR
   
   Loney could do no wrong the first couple of weeks after his overdue promotion to the Dodgers. He's not going to hit .385 for a season, but .316 is a reasonable expectation and he's shown surprising power that hadn't factored into his past projections.
   


2. Ryan Braun (24 - 451 ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .350 / .663 / 1.054 and 14.8 ABs per HR
   2007 Post All-Star -- .309 / .618 / .976 and 12.5 ABs per HR
   
   It's hard to believe, but Braun's AB per HR rate actually rivalled that of his teammate, Prince Fielder, who's ABs per HR was 11.5. Braun is the real deal - expect more of the same for years to come.
   


3. Stephen Drew (25 - 752 ABs)
   2007 Pre All-Star --- .242 / .363 / .667 and 76.5 ABs per HR
   2007 Post All-Star -- .232 / .380 / .704 and 29.6 ABs per HR
   
   The only real silver lining in Drew's 2007 numbers is the spike in his ABs per HR from 76.5 in the 1st half to 29.6 in the 2nd half. Even his K Rate stayed basically level throughout the season. While his 2007 numbers don't exactly dictate it, look for a big step up in 2008 from Drew.
   


4. Delmon Young (22 - 771 ABs)
   
   Young's 2007 season batting lines were level throughout the season with the exception of his ABs per HR which improved from 75 in the 1st half to 38.3 in the 2nd half. Expect improvement in 2008, but not a true breakout.
   


5. Mike Napoli (26 - 487 ABs)
   
   Napoli got off to a bit of a slow start in 2007, but was starting to put things together in 42 July at-bats (.350 / .700 / 1.109) before being sidelined for the rest of the season with a strained hamstring.
   


6. Matt Kemp (23 - 446 ABs)
   
   Kemp had an outstanding season line of .342 / .521 / .894 and produced steadily throughout the year. Expect improvement, but not breakout improvement, in 2008.
   


7. Dustin Pedroia (24 - 609 ABs)
   
   There were really no discernible emerging patterns in Pedroia's 2007 season - again, expect moderate improvement for 2008.
   


8. Scott Thorman (26 - 415 ABs)
   
   Thorman got off to a horrid start in 2007 and never recovered. At this point his value is marginal at best. His best hope is to get dealt somewhere for a fresh start.
   


9. Franklin Gutierrez (25 - 408 ABs)
   
   Gutierrez finally earned more regular playing time and all in all had a decent 2007 season. He'll need to improve against right-handed pitching (.232 / .429 / .721 vs. .330 / .553 / .919 against left-handers) to prove worthy of more than platoon duty.
   

Slight Decline

1. Hunter Pence (Age 25 - 456 career ABs)
   
   Pence was off to a blazing start to the season and the early favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year honors before being sidelined with a right wrist fracture. The good news is that he performed at a similar level offensively after coming back from the injury so look for him to pick right up where he left off.
   


2. Casey Kotchman (25 - 764 ABs)
   
   Ever the prospect, Kotchman had a fair season with only one real concern - his declining power. Kotchman had a 27.4 ABs per HR rate in the 1st half, but dropped off to a 98.0 ABs per HR rate in the 2nd half. For 2008: Improvement? Yes. Breakout? No.
   


3. Brian N. Anderson (26 - 416)
   
   Please remove from all draft or prospect lists except for the very deepest of AL only leagues. Anderson has never had a great batting eye and the 2007 was basically a complete loss. Don't look at him again unless he gets a change of scenery.

And there you have it! A complete analysis of the 59 hitters who won't yet turn 27 by June 30th 2008 who have logged at least 400 career at-bats. Whew!

OTHER POSTS IN THIS SERIES:

Under 27 Breakout Candidates -Pt 2 with analysis of Robinson Cano, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Yuniesky Betancourt, Aaron Hill, Wily Mo Pena, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teahen, Willy Taveras, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, Rocco Baldelli and more

Under 27 Breakout Candidates - Pt 3 with analysis of Dioner Navarro, Matt Murton, Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Conor Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Ian Kinsler, Russ Martin, Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, J.J. Hardy, Kelly Johnson, Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier and more