Aug 5, 2008

Looking Back: AL MVP Predictions

On April 1st, I made the following predictions for 2008 AL MVP:

Lock: Alex Rodriguez
Runner-up: Miguel Cabrera
Darkhorse: Carlos Guillen
"Wouldn't it be cool if" pick: Vladimir Guerrero
"Cats and dogs living together" pick: Melky Cabrera

Alex Rodriguez has been consistently great, although not 'super-spectacular'. The only AL offensive players outproducing him at this point are Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton and Grady Sizemore. None of those three are going to get serious consideration for AL MVP because of where their teams are in the standings. If the Yankees miss the post-season, A-Rod won't win MVP either.

Miguel Cabrera has really been coming on over the past month or so. He's going to have to carry the Tigers on his back for a stretch with some uber-amazing numbers to get serious consideration - that team is just too good overall, he's not really standing out at this point.

Carlos Guillen - forget about it. He seemed poised for another big step forward heading into 2008, but it looks like he is what he already was in 2007, not something more.

Vladimir Guerrero - he was the "Wouldn't it be cool if" pick because he's been in a modest decline the past couple of seasons. It would have been great to see him bounce back into Top 5 in the game status, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen now or ever again.

Melky Cabrera - well, cats and dogs are NOT living together, at least not in the sense Dr. Venkman meant. So we were right on with that pick!

Here's the current odds on the 2008 AL MVP race:
2:1 - Alex Rodriguez
4:1 - Kevin Youkilis
7:1 - Carlos Quentin
10:1 - Justin Morneau
20:1 - Josh Hamilton

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