Aug 8, 2008

2008 NL Cy Young Award Predictions and Odds

First a look back - on April 2nd, I made the following predictions for the 2008 NL Cy Young Award:

Johan Santana

Jake Peavy

John Maine

"Wouldn't it be cool if" pick
Roy Oswalt

"Cats and dogs living together" pick
Barry Zito

Johan Santana - I know - I really went out on a limb with this pick. Here's the breakdown on Santana at this point in the season:

---Stat--- Current NL Rank
2.85 ERA ------ 5th
1.16 WHIP ----- 7th
.235 BAA ------ 8th
135 Ks --------- 7th

Two more interesting items:
  • In Santana's eight no-decisions, he has a 2.60 ERA / 1.077 WHIP
  • In May, Santana posted a 3.74 ERA / 1.54 WHIP. If you remove May from his numbers his season stats would drop to a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP

The biggest thing hurting Santana right now in the race for the NL Cy Young Award is the Mets bullpen. Santana has a 9-7 record, but given how well he's pitching in his no-decision games he could easily be 13-7 or even 15-7.

Jake Peavy probably isn't going to get much consideration with an 8-7 record, due mainly to the horrible Padres offense, plus the five starts he missed in May/June due to his DL stint. Peavy does lead the NL with a 2.59 ERA, and he's fourth in WHIP at 1.12 and fourth in BAA at .230. He'll likely finish somewhere in the 5-7 spot when the voting wraps.

John Maine is fourth in the NL with a .234 BAA, but he's not in the Top 10 anywhere else. Darkhorse was a good category for Maine, hopefully he'll bounce back when he comes off the DL soon.

Roy Oswalt has been pretty average all season posting a 4.56 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and a 9-8 record. He seems like a really good guy and has been on a bit of a decline, thus the "Wouldn't it be cool if" pick.

The Barry Zito decline continues. A 5.74 ERA and 1.74 WHIP are killers, and he just keeps showing enough flashes of brilliance to complete confuse, befuddle and burn desperate owners.

Current odds on winning the 2008 NL Cy Young Award:
5:2 - Dan Haren
3:1 - Brandon Webb
6:1 - Tim Lincecum
7:1 - Johan Santana
7:1 - Edinson Volquez
10:1 - Jake Peavy
12:1 - Chad Billingsley
15:1 - Carlos Zambrano
15:1 - Cole Hamels
17:1 - Ryan Dempster
20:1 - Ben Sheets
24:1 - CC Sabathia
30:1 - Kyle Lohse
40:1 - Aaron Cook

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