2008 AL Cy Young Award Predictions

On April 2nd, I made the following predictions for the 2008 AL Cy Young Award:

Lock
CC Sabathia (although back then it was C.C. Sabathia)

Runner-up
Erik Bedard

Darkhorse
Jered Weaver / Daisuke Matsuzaka

"Wouldn't it be cool if" pick
Francisco Liriano

"Cats and dogs living together" pick
Clay Buchholz


CC Sabathia started off the season with a major THUD - after four starts his ERA was 13.50 and his WHIP was 2.56 - that's no typo: TWO point FIVE SIX. From that point on he posted a 2.16 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with Cleveland, and through his first 48 innings with Milwaukee he has a NL ERA of 1.88 and WHIP of 0.96. Overall, without the first four starts his season ERA would stand at 2.07 with a WHIP of 0.99. From April 22nd on, Sabathia has been the best pitcher in baseball. It's too bad he's not going to get real Cy Young consideration after switching leagues.

Erik Bedard - PASS

Erik Bedard - ok, I guess I'm not allowed to pass (I had to look it up in the RotoAdvantage Blog Constitution). One of the big reasons I liked Bedard heading into the season was the Safeco Park Effect (see original post). And I was correct on that count. For the season, in eight home starts Bedard has a 2.25 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .222 BAA. The problem has come in Bedard's seven road starts where he has a 5.73 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .244 BAA. It's a big "what might have been" season for Bedard who is currently on the DL with shoulder stiffness. Don't be afraid to draft him a bit early next season.

Jered Weaver has had the same problem as Bedard - road starts. In 10 home starts, Weaver has posted a 3.69 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .241 BAA. In 12 road starts he has a 4.98 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .275 BAA. Is Jered really just a younger Jeff Weaver? It's starting to look like maybe that's the case.

Daisuke Matsuzaka really has delivered in 2008. At this point he has to at least be in the conversation when talking AL Cy Young. One interesting stat for Matsuzaka - he has almost exactly double the walk rate against lefties than he does against righties. His WHIP vs. lefties is 1.66 and his WHIP vs. righties is 1.07. His home WHIP is 1.51 and his road WHIP is 1.16. If Boston can get him matched up against primarily right-handed batters in away games for the playoffs he'll be unstoppable!

Francisco Liriano has burned up most of his starts in the minors this season. He's back for good now it would appear, but it's too late for this "Wouldn't it be cool if" pick to pan out. Next year however...

Clay Buchholz went two full months between starts with Boston due to a DL stint for a torn fingernail, followed immediately by a demotion to Pawtucket to work on his consistency. He hasn't been a whole lot better since returning to the Boston rotation. Since his return he's been far too hittable with a .306 BAA.


Here are my current odds for winning the 2008 AL Cy Young Award:

3:1 - Roy Halladay
5:1 - Cliff Lee
6:1 - Joe Saunders
9:1 - Ervin Santana
10:1 - Daisuke Matsuzaka
12:1 - Jamie Shields
15:1 - Justin Duchscherer
20:1 - Mike Mussina

Looking Back: NL MVP Predictions

Again, back on April 1st, I made the following predictions for the 2008 NL MVP Award:

Lock
David Wright

Runner-up
Ryan Braun

Darkhorse
Mark Teixeira

"Wouldn't it be cool if" pick
Albert Pujols

"Cats and dogs living together" pick
J.J. Hardy


David Wright has been great, but not spectacularly great. Still, if he gets hot down the stretch and leads the Mets to the NL East title he's going to win the award.

Ryan Braun is very much in the conversation - he has really turned it on over the past month or more. Still, no playoffs for the Brewers would mean no real MVP consideration for Braun.

Mark Teixeira definitely was a darkhorse. He underproduced his way to Anaheim so he's WAY out of the picture.

Albert Pujols was predicted by most to not be a true MVP candidate at the start of the season due to his elbow injury, the seemingly weak Cardinals team, and the chance that he could be shut down by August if the Cards were out of the playoff hunt. None of those are factors at this point as the Cards are definitely in the playoff hunt and Pujols has been a steady producer.

J.J. Hardy - again, day is not night and night is not day so all is right with the world.

Here are my current odds for winning the 2008 NL MVP Award:

3:1 - Hanley Ramirez
4:1 - David Wright
6:1 - Albert Pujols
9:1 - Ryan Braun
15:1 - Lance Berkman
15:1 - Jose Reyes
25:1 - Matt Holliday
25:1 - Chase Utley

Looking Back: AL MVP Predictions

On April 1st, I made the following predictions for 2008 AL MVP:

Lock: Alex Rodriguez
Runner-up: Miguel Cabrera
Darkhorse: Carlos Guillen
"Wouldn't it be cool if" pick: Vladimir Guerrero
"Cats and dogs living together" pick: Melky Cabrera

Alex Rodriguez has been consistently great, although not 'super-spectacular'. The only AL offensive players outproducing him at this point are Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton and Grady Sizemore. None of those three are going to get serious consideration for AL MVP because of where their teams are in the standings. If the Yankees miss the post-season, A-Rod won't win MVP either.

Miguel Cabrera has really been coming on over the past month or so. He's going to have to carry the Tigers on his back for a stretch with some uber-amazing numbers to get serious consideration - that team is just too good overall, he's not really standing out at this point.

Carlos Guillen - forget about it. He seemed poised for another big step forward heading into 2008, but it looks like he is what he already was in 2007, not something more.

Vladimir Guerrero - he was the "Wouldn't it be cool if" pick because he's been in a modest decline the past couple of seasons. It would have been great to see him bounce back into Top 5 in the game status, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen now or ever again.

Melky Cabrera - well, cats and dogs are NOT living together, at least not in the sense Dr. Venkman meant. So we were right on with that pick!

Here's the current odds on the 2008 AL MVP race:
2:1 - Alex Rodriguez
4:1 - Kevin Youkilis
7:1 - Carlos Quentin
10:1 - Justin Morneau
20:1 - Josh Hamilton

Looking Back: SS Predictions

Now let's take a look at where we stand on the pre-season SS Buy-Sell recommendations:

SELL

• Derek Jeter - #11 on RotoTimes / #11 on ESPN Player Rater
• Miguel Tejada - #5 / #6

BUY

• Stephen Drew - #14 / #14
• J.J. Hardy - #7 / #9

Unless you dealt Tejada for Drew straight up, you probably came out in good shape. Remember, our recommendation was to sell Jeter or Tejada in a package for Drew or Hardy PLUS another upgrade somewhere else on your roster. At the start of the season you should have been able to get a decent upgrade elsewhere if you dealt Jeter for Hardy in return.

Next - a review of the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year predictions.

Playing Time Forecast: Ethier/Pierre, Griffey/Konerko and more

The non-waiver trade deadline was a real humdinger this year - so how have the moves affected the teams involved? Where are there now playing time battles where none existed before? Where did existing playing time battles get even tougher?

• Dodgers OF - obviously the Manny acquisition has put the big squeeze on any Dodger OF not named Kemp. Who's the big loser between Ethier and Pierre?
• White Sox OF/1B/DH - with Griffey now added to the mix with Thome, Swisher and Konerko, who's going to lose out?
• Diamondbacks bullpen - Jon Rauch is in town, Cruz just came off the DL and Lyon hasn't been exactly lights out lately, who has what role?
• Nationals 2B - Felipe Lopez is gone, Emilio Bonifacio is new in town, Willie Harris just keeps hitting. Who will get the most playing time down the stretch?

For a full analysis of these situations, check out Al Melchoir's latest 'By The Numbers' blog post.

By the Numbers: Tricks of the trade(s) [CBS Sportsline]

Looking Back: 3B Predictions

How'd we do on the 3B pre-season Buy/Sell recommendations?

SELL

• Adrian Beltre - #12 on RotoTimes / #15 on ESPN Player Rater
• Mike Lowell - #13 / #18

BUY

• Edwin Encarnacion - #16 / #21
• Kevin Kouzmanoff - #14 / #19

One interesting quote from the original post: "You can get Beltre's production from Edwin Encarnacion, only using a pick 3 to 4 rounds later or spending $6-9 less of your auction money."

Also - here's the comparison of actual production vs. the predictions for Encarnacion and Kouzmanoff:

• "For 2008, a .300-25-100-90-10 line for Encarnacion is definitely within reach."
• Current Pace: .251-29-62-82-2
• Looks like the HR projection was good and RBI was in the neighborhood - everything else is quite a ways off.
  
• "For 2008, Kouzmanoff should hit around .300 with 24 homers, 85+ RBI and 75+ Runs."
• Current Pace: .273-22-81-69-0
• A bit low on the BA, but everything else was on the money.

Looking Back: 2B Predictions

Now, on to the pre-season Buy-Sell recommendations for second basemen - here's how they've played out to this point using the current rankings across all MLB by both the RotoTimes and ESPN Player Raters:

SELL

• Jeff Kent - #29 on RotoTimes / #34 on ESPN
• Dustin Pedroia - #3 / #4

BUY

• Kelly Johnson - #13 / #14
• Aaron Hill - #38 / #50

Not so hot overall on the second base predictions. Pedroia has exceeded most everyone's forecast for this season, while Hill has fallen way short. If you dealt Kent for Johnson you made a good move, but any other combination definitely would have hurt!